The Bute House Agreement was terminated with immediate effect in an unceremonious parting of ways between the SNP and their former political bedfellows, the Scottish Greens. It was an arranged marriage brought about by the former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon which the current (and at the time of writing) First Minister endorsed during the leadership campaign. He was the only candidate in that race to enthusiastically embrace it.
Humza Yousaf claims it had run its course but if you look at the text of the agreement, with its pledge to tackle the issues of climate change and inequality, not to mention progress Scottish independence, these matters have hardly been resolved after three years – quite the opposite in fact.
With four opposition parties now backing Douglas Ross’ Motion of No Confidence in the First Minister, his time in office will likely depend on the support of Alba’s sole MSP Ash Regan.
Having to rely on the lone representative of Alex Salmond’s party – whose views on contentious issues like gender recognition reform are completely at odds with the SNP’s progressive wing – might cause the First Minister to contemplate whether it was worth the hassle of continuing in office. Spending more time at his family home in Broughty Ferry might be a more appealing option.
His strategy cannot be limping on until the next UK General Election while crossing his fingers hoping for the best. Minority governments have been commonplace in Scotland but the messy divorce with the Scottish Greens makes passing legislation that bit harder. This is not the 2007-2011 parliament with the collegiate relationship between Salmond and Annabelle Goldie; nor is it the 2016-2021 parliament when Patrick Harvie was ready to accept the gluten free crumbs from the table of Nicola Sturgeon.
If the First Minister loses that MoNC vote next week, he could technically remain in post. There was confusion amongst the McTwitterati about whether the First Minister would have to tender his resignation to the King, as per the Scotland Act, if he lost the vote – but that would only come to pass if the MoNC concerned the Scottish Government as a whole.
If the FM did indeed lose, his career would, in all likelihood, be over: ‘the Men in Grey Kilts’, to use the phrase of former SNP MSP Mike Russell, would be sharpening their sgian dubhs.
Whatever way you look at it, Humza Yousaf looks snookered and will have to defy the powers of political gravity with a trick shot worthy of Ronnie O’ Sullivan to get himself out of what is a largely self-inflicted mess.
by Leslie Clark, Head of Policy