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Another week, another set of polls that really haven’t moved. There continues to be no clear trend and contradictory and conflicting messages from the different polls. UK Polling Report’s rolling average for the first time in a long time gives the Conservatives a lead – the Tories are also as high as 35% in this week’s polls, coming out on top in three and with a four point lead in one. That said, the Tories also dip as low as 29% and Labour scores a narrow lead in five polls, the biggest being just 3 points.
Neither of the parties appears able to break the deadlock. While Labour is counting on using the Leaders’ debates for its electoral advantage (although arguably it will benefit the smaller parties like the Greens and the SNP more), the Tories have one final set-piece ace up their sleeve. The Budget.
The burden of election winning now falls to Cameron’s closest ally and strategist George Osborne, whose budget speech on Wednesday could be make for break the party’s election chances. It is of limited economic value as the plans will only really be implemented if the Tories win the election, but the political value is clear. Osborne knows he doesn’t need much, just 1% more in the vote could just be enough to swing it – so he will make a pitch to elderly voters, whose generally more conservative leanings and disproportionate likelihood to vote makes them a prime target.
This said, Osborne has one hurdle he must overcome. The received wisdom in politics is that it is difficult for a party in power to increase its share of the vote: 36.1% is the Tories’ magic number as it’s the share of the vote they received in 2010. This forms their ‘ceiling’ which, while not impossible to go above, seems highly unlikely, especially given the circumstances. While you might expect Labour to increase its share in opposition, it started from a very low base – 29% – and has only increased modestly since. Both parties now appear to have settled around 33% or 34% of the vote.
Osborne knows this, so he will implement a dual-pronged strategy. He must sure up the Tory vote – if they receive 35% of the vote on election day I’m sure they would be delighted to have emerged from 5 years of austerity losing just 1% of the vote – all the while systematically undermining Labour’s vote share. So, there will be traps for Labour. There will no doubt be attempts to portray Labour as being in the pockets of vested interests (i.e. the unions), likely to align with the SNP, likely to fail on the economy and as being afraid to make the tough decisions.
Osborne knows he only has to budge the polls ever so slightly to secure victory on 7 May, and that doesn’t just mean moving the Tory vote share up. The Budget is the ideal opportunity.