The Conservative Party has entered its fourth leadership contest in five years as it continues to grapple with it’s future direction. Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Mel Stride all secured the required 10 MPs to make it to the next round. They all believe they have what it takes to save their party from the political abyss.
A battle for the soul of the party is about to commence. Whether it veers to the right or towards the political centre now rests firmly in the hands of Tory MPs and the party membership. Here, we examine the leadership hopefuls, one of whom will be handed the monumental task of rebuilding the party after its worst-ever electoral defeat.
IS IT KEMI’S TO LOSE?
Let’s begin with the struggle unfolding to be champion of the party right. The ‘darling of the right’ Kemi Badenoch, tipped by bookmakers to claim the Tory crown, launched her campaign with rhetoric reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher. She has pledged to return the Tories to power by 2030 with a renewed focus on the party’s core principles of sovereignty and steadfast capitalism. She is ideologically driven, intelligent and combative, and has entrenched her reputation as a culture warrior. Many within the party believe that if she reaches the final stage, she will emerge victorious given her support amongst grassroots Tories. However, she remains a divisive figure amongst her peers her competitors will be aiming to prevent her getting that far.
To make it onto the ballot of members, Badenoch will have to fend off fierce competition. Robert Jenrick has embarked on a political transformation in the past year. A remain supporter once labelled a centrist and even deemed on the left by some of his colleagues, the former immigration minister appears to have drifted ever more to the right since dramatically resigning from Sunak’s Government over the so-called Rwanda scheme not going far enough. With Suella Braverman ruling herself out of the contest, he will be hoping to secure much of her core vote by appealing to those in the selectorate who are sympathetic to Reform. In a punchy campaign launch video, Jenrick has pledged to deport illegal migrants within days and take back control from the EHRC.
The final nominee firmly on the right is Dame Priti Patel. Long considered to be the right’s traditional torchbearer, Patel is a close ally of Boris Johnson who is thought to have strongly encouraged her to enter the race. She also has the good fortune of not being part of the drama of the last two years.
A CAMPAIGN OF MANY UNIFIERS
What of the candidates seeking to be the flag-bearer for the centre ground? They have all labelled themselves as the unifying candidate, promising to bring every wing of the party back together under one coalition.
James Cleverly was the first candidate to declare, vowing to “unite the Conservatives and overturn Labour’s loveless landslide.” Cleverly is a genial and conciliatory figure, and a slick media performer who will seek to position himself as the bridge between the party’s two main factions.
Mel Stride, despite barely holding his own seat, is set to exploit his high regard across the Parliamentary party and experience as former leader of the Commons and chair of the Treasury Select Committee to win members over. Nevertheless, his competition will be quick to assert that he is the continuity candidate of this election. This is an image he may struggle to shake off after being such a close ally of Sunak and having been deployed to bat for the Government during the election.
Tom Tugendhat, a former soldier and the only candidate to have never served as Secretary of State, attempted to dispel any suggestion that he will have difficulty appealing to the party’s more fervent right-wing MPs by putting a threat of leaving the EHRC at the heart of his campaign. This is not a position he held in Government so it remains to be seen whether he can authentically move to the right enough for the party’s membership.
THE FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL
This leadership contest underscores the critical juncture at which the Conservative Party stands. It is a struggle not just for control but for the very survival of the party.
While internal divisions and external pressures mount, there is no question about the scale of the challenge. A long campaign will now occupy Conservative MPs for much of August and at their party conference, with the absence of a new leader until 2 November. Labour has been handed the rare opportunity to drive much of their agenda forward without an effective Opposition. The Liberal Democrats and Reform UK have also been given free rein to set much of the narrative post-election. Winning back votes from both sides will be a dilemma facing the new leader.
Over the coming weeks, we will see which vision for the party prevails. Whomever the next leader is, whichever side of the party they come from, they will face the formidable task of uniting the Conservatives, restoring the trust of voters, and setting a new direction.