Who’d be a lobbyist in Northern Ireland? Over the summer, in the knowledge that I would be writing this piece in September I thought about explaining what it’s like to lobby a completely dysfunctional government. It’s been hugely difficult to get decisions on anything whilst the whole government machine is snarled up over Sinn Féin's opposition to welfare reform, and the Executive has been unable to agree a budget.
Now of course, since the murder of Kevin McGuigan, and the Chief Constable’s assertion that the IRA was involved, we’re in an even worse situation.
Over the past 18 months, the political situation here has deteriorated badly. As the mood and the relationship between Sinn Féin and the DUP worsened, primarily but not exclusively over welfare reform, the deterioration was mirrored in the performance of the Executive. Where before it was possible to achieve fairly major lobbying results, for example my own campaign on industrial rates which saved the manufacturing sector £50 Million a year, now getting decisions on anything became more and more difficult.
One reason for the problems here have however rarely been mentioned. Put simply, we’ve been unlucky. Just as the St Andrews Agreement began to bed down, allowing the DUP/Sinn Féin led Executive to get into gear, the world’s economy collapsed, and the entire narrative shifted from a ‘bright new future together’ to ‘there’s no money and we’re all doomed’. The natural split in instinctual positions then followed as the Conservative parties’ welfare reform programme left the DUP more or less towing the British government line, while Sinn Féin refused to implement ‘Tory cuts’. Sinn Féin's hugely anti-austerity stance in the Irish Republic left them with limited room for manoeuvre on the issue, while the DUP became more and more exasperated by what they saw as their governing partner’s ‘pie in the sky economics’. Things were bad, but now they are terminal.
So what does all of this mean in public affairs terms? Well initially, a lot of cancelled events. As of this morning I’ve cancelled four events where Ministers were due to appear in the next seven days. Luckily I anticipated the current problems as far back as Christmas and ensured that my consultancy beefed up its PR client base, so we’re able to absorb the loss of activity on the public affairs side of the business quite comfortably. Also, I’ve lived and worked through a long suspension before, and we’re well enough connected at senior civil servant level to continue to do our job. There’s even a school of thought that in the short term at least there may be a better chance of getting results if suspension does occur and a direct rule team is sent in, though I have my doubts about that scenario.
But all of that isn’t really the point. I was lucky enough to be Communications Director for the SDLP during the most intense period of the peace process, and saw the dream of a hopeful future take shape and become a reality before my eyes. Now I’m deeply pessimistic about the future of Northern Ireland. We can’t govern, pay for or behave ourselves, and that is a matter for deep thinking, and serious concern. My kids will be encouraged to go to University in the Irish Republic or elsewhere as at the time of writing this, Northern Ireland’s future looks very bleak indeed.