The United Kingdom is used to rain.
There are many jokes about the amount of rain, how often it rains and how so many people are still surprised when it rains. One of those people must be the Prime Minister, who suddenly finds herself with something of a deluge – dealing with the triggering of Article 50, revived prospects of a Scottish referendum, and power sharing negotiations in Northern Ireland. The adage says that when it rains it pours, but this is a constitutional hurricane rather than a short-term weather event.
When May became Prime Minister in July, few thought she would be dealing with so many issues at once. Now she faces some of the starkest constitutional crises since the kingdom was united. While it is easy to blame Brexit, and chalk these events up to reactions or overreactions, I think there is something more occurring. Namely, that the UK is experiencing federal growing pains, and the devolved administrations have learned to play the game.
In a unitary system, the central government holds the power, and can yield some powers to devolved administrations. The devolved administrations, of course, eventually want more. More powers, more funding, more control. These are difficult discussions, as governmental powers are zero sum: if Scotland has power over something, Westminster has lost power over something. In order to gain more, the devolved administrations have to play hard ball. Scotland has figured this out, and is willing to go to the extremes. It is a serious matter, and with big risks come big consequences (see: Quebec, 1995).
In Northern Ireland, this is happening on a smaller scale. Sinn Fein is going to take full advantage of their new, more powerful situation in order to gain more power for those they represent. This is federalism 101, as battle lines move from being between parties to now include governments. While it may not always be as cut-and-dry as a referendum to split the country, significant fights between Westminster and the devolved administrations are the new normal for the UK.
How can the Prime Minister deal with a second Scottish referendum, the Northern Irish Executive and Article 50? The only way a national government can: with the powers they still hold, and the willingness to use these powers in order to see them through the challenges at hand.