Bellenden’s Associate Director Chris White looks at expected turnout, the final polling figures and what this might mean for the marginal seats as we head into the second half of Polling Day.
Polls opened this morning at 7am across the UK with turnout expected to be at least 5% higher than the 65.1% achieved in 2010. All the main party leaders have now cast their vote, with the weather dry and bright across much of the UK.
The final polls show that the result is simply too close to call. Ipsos Mori show a one point Conservative lead on 36 points compared to 35, but ICM shows the reverse, with Labour on 35% and the Conservatives on 34%. Other polls from Populus, BMG, Survation and Ashcroft all show the race neck and neck. It is definitely the case that there has been a slight move in the polls towards Labour in the last few days of between one and two percent. Whether this is enough to get them over the line remains to be seen.
Much of the focus now rests on the respective ‘Get Out The Vote’ operations by each of the two main parties, particularly in the marginal seats. Labour has targeted 106 seats they need to achieve a majority, but are also defending against a SNP landslide in Scotland. With a higher contact rate of voters in marginal seats and large numbers of footsoldiers this could prove crucial for the red team.
For the Conservatives, for the last three years the focus has been on the ‘40/40’ strategy – defending the 40 most marginal Conservative seats with their 40 target seats to win a majority.
In addition to the Westminster constituency elections, there are more than 9,000 council elections being fought across nearly 280 local authorities in England, with Mayoral elections also taking place in Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough and Torbay.
Polls remain open until 10pm, with the first marginal seat result expected to be Nuneaton at about 1am. Polls have shown Labour to be 5 points ahead in this seat and if they win here it may suggest Labour and Ed Miliband are on course to victory. If they fail and Marcus Jones and the Conservatives hold on, it will give the blue corner heart and could indicate David Cameron is on course to stay in Number 10.