GK Strategic Adviser David Laws shares his thoughts on the Prime Minister’s decision to call a general election and what to look out for over the next month.
The Prime Minister's rain-soaked declaration that he is calling a general election for 4 July took the media, Westminster, and his own MPs and Cabinet Ministers by surprise - and for good reason. Calling an election when you are over 20% behind in the polls and after disastrous local elections just weeks before is an "interesting and original" strategy and it is not easy to see the justification. One possible reason is that the Prime Minister may have concluded that there is little good news to come - the Office for Budget Responsibility might have blocked a final 'giveaway' Autumn Statement, and maybe the 'small boat' crossings will get worse. But this is not an easy explanation to offer the electorate. Another possible rationale - maybe more plausible - is that it was an attempt to disrupt the plans of Reform UK and reduce the chance of Nigel Farage standing for Parliament. Farage has implied as much, but this may be more an excuse for his reticence to join the fight than a genuine explanation. Maybe Farage is keeping his powder dry in the hope of making a bid for the Conservative leadership after the election. Maybe the real reason for the election is simply that Sunak had concluded that almost nothing was going to move the dial on voter opinion, and his last card was to use his ability to determine the election date, and be seen to be taking the initiative rather than holding on grimly to the end.
It is early days in the campaign, but so far the picture is as follows: Labour is determined to play things very cautiously and offer up no new targets for the Conservatives and their media allies; the Conservatives are throwing out implausibly costed and slightly eccentric policies to try to recover their position and avoid more of their traditional voters peeling off to Reform UK; the Liberal Democrats are doing all they can to win attention, but are essentially hunkered down in the 30-50 key seats where they have a real chance; the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalists) are trying to hold their own in the face of a Labour resurgence; and Reform UK is certainly a factor to be taken seriously but may not break through unless Farage takes on a higher campaign profile.
What could change things, as politicians await the sending out of the first postal votes in just a few weeks? The leaders’ debates (likely just two main ones, between Labour and the Conservatives) are a big risk for Starmer and an opportunity for Sunak. The Labour team will be very relieved if they get through these occasions without suffering any serious damage. The Conservatives seem likely to throw out more new policy ideas to disrupt the campaign and create dividing lines (will the abolition of inheritance tax make a comeback?), and can Reform UK suddenly cut through and make a real impact?
There is not long to go and each day that passes without a big movement in the polls moves Labour closer to government. But Labour still has an electoral mountain to climb. At present, in the absence of a major shock, this election remains Labour's to lose. But the extent of any Labour victory is still all to play for.