The past 12 months has marked an unprecedented period for Welsh Politics.
In-fighting in both the Labour and Conservative groups in the Senedd has dominated proceedings, with the nation having had three Labour first ministers and two Welsh Tory Senedd leaders in that time.
As the 2026 Senedd election draws nearer, and with Plaid Cymru and Reform gaining ground in the polls, our Senior Consultant, Owen Mitchell, offers an overview of what to watch for in Welsh politics this year.
Senedd Expansion and Electoral Reform
One of the most notable changes in Welsh politics in 2025 will be the implementation of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, which will increase the number of Senedd Members from 60 to 96, whilst introducing a proportional representation system to replace the previous mixed-member electoral model.
The new system divides Wales into 16 constituencies, each electing six members, in a move designed to enhance democratic representation and address longstanding criticisms of the Senedd’s capacity to handle its growing responsibilities.
However, the reforms – which I previously campaigned on during my short time at The Electoral Reform Society Cymru – are not without controversy.
Although the Government argues the changes will lead to a more robust democracy, concerns have been raised about the potential for greater political fragmentation and the complexities of implementing such a significant overhaul.
The Budget
The Welsh Labour government faces a significant challenge in passing its budget this March. Without a majority in the Senedd, Labour will need support from other parties to secure approval – most likely from Jane Dodds, the sole Liberal Democrat Member of the Senedd.
Finance Minister Mark Drakeford has indicated that there could be additional funding for Welsh councils, with increases at the lower end of the funding range announced in December. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to win Dodds’ crucial vote.
What is clear, however, is that neither Plaid Cymru nor the Welsh Conservatives are expected to play a role in any potential deal, with the balance of power firmly in the hands of the Liberal Democrats.
The NHS
The First Minister, Eluned Morgan, who served as the nation’s health secretary since 2021, is coming under increasing pressure to improve the performance of the Welsh NHS.
Around a 20% of the Welsh population are currently on a hospital waiting list – the highest on record.
Last year, Morgan pointed to progress being made on reducing the longest waits for treatment, with 97% of patients waiting less than two years. But with this figure substantially higher than in England, it’s critical she makes headway on this issue in 2025 if Labour are to hold onto power next year.
Preparing for the 2026 Elections
As the year progresses, political parties will gear up for the 2026 Senedd elections, with the new electoral system set to significantly impact party representation, coalition dynamics, and voter engagement, which may favour smaller parties like Plaid and Reform.
With both parties having made significant gains in last year’s General Election, a recent poll suggests Plaid were marginally ahead of Labour and Reform with 24% of support vs 23% for the other two, with the Conservatives behind in fourth place.
Of course, there is a long way to go, but it seems Labour – the only party to govern since devolution began in 1999 – face an uphill battle to retain power.
by Owen Mitchell, Senior Consultant