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June sees the traditional rain and the erecting of massive bonfires ahead of July’s twelfth celebrations...and the even more traditional political impasse.
To round up the days leading up to the Northern Ireland Assembly’s summer recess is to take a meander into the surreal politics that exist here.
It is rare indeed to find any part of the world where a budget is simply ‘made up’.
With the Stormont House Agreement stalled on welfare reform implementation, our Finance Minister introduced a ‘fantasy’ budget bill to the Assembly this week.
Why so, you ask. Because there is a £600m gap in the Stormont Executive’s spending plans that are based on a promise of more cash from the Westminster Government, if there is an agreement on welfare reform. MLA are therefore being asked to agree a budget that pretends the money is in the Assembly’s account.
Even though Northern Ireland plc is facing a reduction in the block grant it gets from the Treasury for not implementing welfare reform, the political classes have agreed to let themselves slip into a dream-like state of denial in the hope that all will work itself out in the end.
All was going well in the wake of the Stormont House Agreement until Sinn Féin pulled the rug out from everyone’s feet by saying in March that they would not back the changes to benefits.
Much has been made of the party in Northern Ireland wanting to match its anti-austerity rhetoric south of border in the Republic where they are looking to become the largest party after the general election there, which must happen by April 2016.
Equally, Sinn Féin’s partners in the Stormont government, the DUP, have been saying if there is no agreement on welfare, then the Treasury imposed cuts to the budget could be a lot worse – with even the prospect of the Assembly collapsing in the autumn being whispered.
If budgetary issues are in fantasy-land, MPs may look with surprise at the mates for seats issue...
Unlike in the Commons, when an Northern Ireland Assembly member dies, resigns or changes their mind about politics as a career, there is no need for a by-election.
You just need to call up a friend in the party and co-opt them into the Assembly. The theory is that a by-election could shift the balance of power in constituencies, leading to the largest party squeezing out smaller parties who gained seats under the proportional representation voting system we have here.
With two Ulster Unionist MLAs winning seats at Westminster in May, the party has had to find replacements for them in the Assembly. Danny Kinahan’s South Antrim seat has been taken by controversial Antrim and Newtownabbey councillor Adrian Cochrane-Watson. Cllr Cochrane-Watson stirred the pot when a number of years ago he said gays were not welcome at his bed and breakfast business. He does, however, say that the row is in the past.
In Fermanagh and South Tyrone Neil Somerville is taking over Tom Elliot’s seat, and as SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell prepares to step down from the Assembly, Belfast City Councillor Claire Hanna is readying herself to replace him.
And, if you think this is an unusual situation consider this – 17 of the 108 MLAs have been co-opted into Assembly seats. How many will hold their seats next May remains to be seen.