This week saw unusual unions formed in Wales. Plaid Cymru joined the Conservative Party in dropping out of Labour’s proposed NHS Commission in Wales. The decision from Plaid and the Conservatives was condemned by the Liberal Democrats who said that the two parties have let down patients across Wales, a view shared by the Royal College of Nursing in Wales. The cross party group was condemned by the Conservatives because they felt it had been excluded from the inception. It has made for a fierce debate.
On Monday the Secretary of State for Wales, Stephen Crabb, gave a speech at Aberystwyth University where he declared that he would welcome a rainbow coalition in Wales. He stated that the Labour Party, which is currently a minority administration, has ruled the Bay for far too long without much success. He said that he would be supportive of Plaid and Conservative Party working together in the future and that this would be a chance to refresh the Assembly.
Mr Crabb’s comments are timely after YouGov produced a poll on the same day that points towards a six party Senedd post May 2016. Since the last poll in January the three main parties, Lab, Plaid and Con, have seen an increase in support whilst support for UKIP’s has dropped by four percent. If these figures translate into seats then Labour would have 29, Cons 13, UKIP 5 with the Green Party and Liberal Democrats trailing with just two seats between them. The loss of four seats for the Lib Dems would be catastrophic in Wales as UKIP could replace them as a prominent party in Welsh politics.
Labour and Conservatives could lose a single seat each and Plaid are on course to remain at the same level… Could 2016 be the year Plaid and Labour patch things up and form a coalition or will Labour continue to go it alone? Will the Assembly be rocked by a rainbow revolution that could see Conservatives, Plaid, UKIP, Lib Dems and the Green Party sticking it to Labour? It is certainly worth taking into account that the data accumulated is for the General Election and it will be interesting to see how people’s voting patterns change when it comes to an Assembly vote in May 2016.