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It goes without saying that one event has dominated Westminster this week, culminating in this morning’s dramatic 52:48 result in favour of leaving the EU. A week that began in sombre mood with MPs recalled to Parliament to remember Jo Cox has ended in dramatic and uncertain fashion with the resignation of David Cameron as Prime Minister.
A final week of campaigning, including the grand and at times bizarre sight of a televised political debate from Wembley, resulted in the UK waking up to the news that it has decided to leave the EU. This is a shock result – one in defiance of the last minute polls pointing towards Remain – and represents a stunning victory for the Leave campaigners and strategists.
Taken together, the enormity of the referendum result and the PM’s resignation cannot be stated strongly enough. Beyond the immediate priority of stabilising the UK’s financial system, the UK faces a period of huge change and potential uncertainty. What we do know is that we can expect a new Prime Minister to be in place around the time of Conservative Party conference in October. This means a party leadership contest, where leading Brexiteers (notably Boris Johnson) will naturally be in pole position to move into Number 10.
Equally, we also know that Cameron will give his successor the power to choose when to invoke Article 50 and officially begin the negotiations with the EU regarding the roadmap for the UK’s withdrawal. Elsewhere, uncertainty is the order of the day. Cameron stated that the government’s legislative agenda – announced in the Queen’s Speech – will be taken forward. This will, of course, be hugely dependent on the decision of the PM’s successor.
Immediate interest will turn to which Tories will throw their hats into the ring to fight for the leadership. The key question and one any potential candidate must answer is: what exactly will our relationship with the EU be? The Leave campaign focused on why we need to get out. The question of what the future looks like will dominate the summer.