The reticence of the Belgian Walloons last week to ratify the flagship EU-Canada trade deal has threatened, during this busy summit week, to dethrone Brexit as the discussion topic of choice. In a period of Brexit mania, how can this be possible?
The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has been five years in the making. Who could have imagined that one country (or more precisely ‘half a country’), would be able to derail the great EU machine with a simple vote (the UK notwithstanding)?
Wallonia having such a powerful hand isn’t a normal state of affairs, with the European Commission usually only requiring a mandate from ministers to close a trade deal. But these days are not usual days. Wanting to avoid an ‘undemocratic’ deal, Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, put the deal up for approval by national parliaments. In the complex linguistic society that is Belgium, each of the regional parliaments – Flanders, Wallonia and the German-speaking community – had the opportunity to consider the proposal and, in effect, a veto. A certain recent referendum might have reminded President Juncker that the agendas of national political forces are not always neatly aligned with the goals of the EU. It now seems that the Walloons have set a precedent for trade deals to come and may encourage other parliaments to do the same.
During the General Affairs Council meeting last Tuesday, ministers failed to reach an agreement due to the ongoing concerns of Wallonia. Romania, Bulgaria and Germany then used the extra time to insert their own clauses into the deal. Until Belgium decides to agree on the deal, CETA will not be ratified as it needs the unanimity of the 28 Member States.
The ramifications go wider than just this deal. As the EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström mentioned, “There are of course bigger things at stake than only this agreement”. A collapse of CETA would bring uncertainty and risk the EU’s ‘credibility’ over other free-trade deals that it is currently pursuing. In an attempt to regain the initiative, the European Commission put out a communication on new trade defence instruments which will contribute to the discussions on trade and the second-round negotiations on CETA taking place at the European Council meeting.
And while it may seem like Brexit has taken a back seat thanks to Wallonia’s decision, much as all roads lead to Rome, all EU discussions at the moment seem to lead back to Brexit. For CETA’s troubles are also a test case for the EU’s future negotiations with Britain. As Commissioner Malmström said “If we can’t make it with Canada, I don’t think we can make it with the UK”.
Indeed, Brexit seems to be a ghostly figure haunting most items on the EU’s plate. At the European Council, Brexit is off the official agenda, save for a dinner statement by Theresa May. But the three official items of discussion – trade, migration and Russia’s role in Syria – are significantly impacted by the repercussions of an EU without Britain.
Theresa May’s dinner speech confirmed that Article 50 will be triggered at the end of March, just as the EU will be celebrating the 60th anniversary of its founding treaty. With this in mind, it is perhaps surprising to hear Council President Donald Tusk’s remark that Prime Minister May, in her first Council meeting, should not worry as she will not be entering the "lion’s den but a nest of doves". If Brexit continues to haunt the EU agenda, as it seems it might, then it remains to be seen whether the doves will not turn into lions.