The new political term certainly started with a bang. Isis, Clacton, Scotland – it was hard to know where to look first. Obviously the unfolding events in Iraq and Syria overshadowed much of the public debate, but as MPs return to Westminster for the two weeks preceding party conference, it is splits in the Tories that are dominating the barroom chat.
Tory desertion
Douglas Carswell’s shock defection to UKIP and the impending by-election in Clacton on David Cameron’s birthday on 9 October, mean that UKIP is again making waves. This is undoubtedly causing discomfort for the Conservative leadership, and for many of Carswell’s former allies on the right of the party. Despite hints from some mischievous quarters, there is little chance of Boris Johnson standing in Clacton. However, in a nice twist, the Conservative hierarchy will be using an open primary to select their candidate. At least the UKIP candidate will approve.
Back to the future
But who will really benefit from this unexpected upheaval? If the Conservatives cannot pull together at the Conference in Birmingham, will the pundits start preparing for Miliband’s arrival in Number Ten? The Labour Party has been deliberately slow to unveil its full programme for government – they know that the governing party can readily adopt its opponents’ policies should they prove popular, or rip them to shreds if uncosted or unworkable. Instead Miliband is setting a tone – his government will be on the side of the council house tenant, the energy bill payer and the commuter. Reaching to the past for inspiration, Miliband believes that where the market is perceived to be failing the state can intervene. But it remains hard to discern what this will look like in practice.
A fruitful discussion about what a Miliband Government would look like took place at Connect this week, as attendees at our Would you be ready for a Labour Government? course chewed over the drivers behind Labour’s policy development, Labour’s key players and Miliband as Prime Minister. Inevitably, however, it was agreed that the economic reality will likely stifle many of Labour’s more ambitious plans, leaving them relying on symbolic gestures such as the abolition of the ‘Bedroom Tax’ or the reintroduction of the 50p top rate of tax.
Silenced Speaker
One thing does seem to be uniting Conservative backbenchers: an aggressive desire to defenestrate Mr Speaker. This week it got more personal than ever as John Bercow faced further questions over his appointment of the Australian Carol Mills as Clerk of the House of Commons. In the distant past, Speakers resisted the call to the chair as the role was liable to incur the monarch’s (violent) wrath. While in recent years it has carried less risk, it is worth considering that it has been 14 years since a Speaker resigned at a time of their own choosing – it’s MPs’ wrath that Speakers need to watch today.
Charles Pitt
Account Director, Connect Communications