For someone met with scepticism from both the Remain and Leave camps during the referendum campaign, Theresa May has done well to gain the confidence of both as Prime Minister. A self-styled ‘Reluctant Remainer’, she kept a low profile during the referendum campaign, casting doubt on her commitment to Europe.
The tables turned when she launched her leadership bid, with Brexiteers questioning whether a Remainer could really lead Britain out of the EU. So far, she has not disappointed them. Having promptly dismissed talk of a second referendum, she is adamant that “Brexit means Brexit”. There will be “no attempts to remain inside the EU” or “re-join it by the back door”.
In line with her traditionally careful approach to decision-making, May has refused to trigger Article 50 until at least 2017, waiting to secure “the right deal” for the UK. What would this look like, in her eyes?
Having held responsibility for immigration as Home Secretary since 2010, we can expect this to remain a key focus. It’s impossible to escape the enormous political weight carried by immigration during the referendum campaign, especially amongst grassroots Leave voters. Unlike her leadership rivals, May refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens to remain in the UK after Brexit. Meeting with the Slovakian and Polish Prime Ministers last month, she warned them that Britain’s leave vote is a “very clear message” on the need to reduce immigration. Indeed, according to David Davis MP, now Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, May has made an explicit pledge to prioritise immigration control in Brexit negotiations, even if this results in economic concessions.
Security, including the ability to deport foreign criminals and terrorists, is another key component of May’s post-Brexit vision. Her support for the Remain campaign was largely based on the EU’s role in protecting European peace and security. She is therefore likely to seek to maintain access to mechanisms such as the European Arrest Warrant and the European Criminal Records Information System.
But interestingly, while she has always been a vocal critic of the European Convention on Human Rights, seeing this as a hindrance to UK security, she has quietly abandoned her ambition for the UK to withdraw, on the grounds this would be divisive and would command no parliamentary majority were it put to a vote. In contrast to the inevitable comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, this paints a picture of May as pragmatist rather than ideologue.
And what do other European leaders make of her? European Council President Donald Tusk has, uncharacteristically, kept his cards close to his chest, saying only that he looks forward to a “fruitful working relationship” with May. Similarly, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has spoken of the need to “work closely” with her on what he euphemistically calls “the new situation which the United Kingdom and the European Union will have to address soon”. German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with May on the evening of her appointment as Prime Minister and has so far sought a calm and measured approach to Brexit, in contrast to murmurs of revenge from her French and Eastern European colleagues.
They are all, however, united in their agreement that Britain must invoke Article 50 before negotiations can begin. This jars with May’s pledge to begin the exit process once “the right deal” has been secured for Britain. Despite a warm welcome for the new Prime Minister in Berlin, Angela Merkel has warned that Britain will not be allowed to cherry pick EU laws. Compromise is inevitable.
It’s been said that Brexit is the biggest challenge faced by any Prime Minister since the Second World War. It will no doubt be a painful and gruelling process – even for “a bloody difficult woman”.