The week in Scotland comes to a close with a sense of relief that the holiday season has arrived - very few Christmas cards or e-messages remain to be sent, only the last presents remain to be bought and the weather isn’t too bad for travel.
Somehow not much seems to change. Every time the wind blows as it has this week, several hundred electricity consumers are left without power. The Police have issued dire warnings about drink driving over the Festive period, and rightly so. The high street worries about the absence of shoppers and whether they will descend upon the sales. The suspicion is that this year December retail sales figures will not be great.
In the political arena there’s a sense that not a lot has changed in 2013. The Lockerbie bombing was in the news again in the last few days. After 25 years suspicions remain that the late Mr Megrahi didn’t act alone. You feel for the families of the victims as you have to wonder if they will ever consider that justice has been done and they receive “closure”, whatever that means.
And then there’s the referendum – can we all have a fortnight off please? Public opinion seems to be almost exactly where it was a year ago. Much discussion has occurred as to what the two campaigns should be doing to shift opinion their way by capturing the significant number of don’t knows. The Scottish Government’s White Paper hasn’t been a game changer for the Yes campaign. Should Better Together carry on doing what it’s doing as it’s ahead in the polls or present a “more positive” case for the union?
Two or perhaps three big referendum issues have surfaced – the currency, pensions and Europe. The last of these saw a significant Parliamentary development this week. Labour has moved one of its key MSPs to the European and External Affairs Committee which is to hold an inquiry looking at an independent Scotland's potential membership of the EU.
That inquiry and another by the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee into Scotland’s economic future post 2014 present a dilemma for public affairs advisers. What should we say to clients asked to contribute to either or both? Many businesses have expressed a desire to be neutral and such a stance is clearly in the best interests of some. However does that mean that the evidence to the Committees will not be a fair reflection of what the business community really thinks?
Will there be a game changer in 2014? If there is to be one it will probably be from an external source. There is a growing realisation that a post-independence UK will not be the same place as today. Its politics may well move sharply to the right. It may not be so friendly to a competitor Scotland on its doorstep as some think. It may even want to leave the EU.
Scotland’s biggest market could be outside the EU and Scotland inside presuming that the Scottish Government can negotiate entry which is at least open to doubt - now there’s a scenario to ponder after the Christmas pudding. Maybe the European elections in the summer will tell us more.
A Merry Christmas and an Interesting New Year to one and all.
Euan Robson
Associate, Caledonia Public Affairs