Cameron’s battle for Britain: Deal or no deal?
After “intense and constructive” talks at the EU summit yesterday, it appears that real progress will have to be made today for David Cameron to win what has been dubbed his “battle for Britain”.
In the re-negotiation process for the relationship between the UK and the EU, all countries have confirmed their wish for the UK to stay in the bloc, but some have also set out specific concerns. "It became clear that agreement will not be easy for many, but that the will is there," German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported as saying by the Reuters news agency. Sticking points remain on migrant welfare, child benefit, relations with the Eurozone, treaty change and a British exemption from the requirement for ‘ever-closer union’.
Day two’s session of the EU summit on the UK's demands has been put back to allow Cameron to speak to individual leaders on a one-to-one basis. Personal chemistry will surely be as important as politics at this stage of the summit, with bilateral meetings key to making headway on Cameron’s demands.
If a deal is agreed by all EU leaders, the UK is expected to call a referendum as early as June, with the most likely date thought to be Thursday 23 June.
Fallon’s Falklands Faux Pas
On a visit to the Falkland Islands this week, the Secretary of State for Defence, Michael Fallon MP, told the BBC that the biggest threat to the Islands came not from Argentina, who fought a war over their sovereignty in 1988, but from Jeremy Corbyn.
Conservative sources said Fallon was referring to an interview Corbyn gave to the BBC’s Andrew Marr in January, where Corbyn said: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st century we'd be getting into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it. Yes, of course the islanders have an enormous say in this, let's bring about some sensible dialogue. It happened before, I'm sure it can happen again."
It seems Fallon has chosen to interpret this comment as meaning that Corbyn would negotiate with Argentina and not take into account the wishes of the Islanders. Fallon told the BBC: “The biggest threat at the moment isn’t Argentina. Actually it is Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party."
Michael Summers, the Chair of the Falklands Legislative Assembly had a more measured tone when asked for comment by the BBC, saying: “I do not think he [Jeremy Corbyn] is a threat."
Boris’s stall looks bad to Cameron
Boris Johnson continues to play his cards close to his chest this week, telling the Prime Minister at a meeting in Downing Street that he needs to do more to secure his support for Britain to remain in the EU.
Johnson, who remains coy about his position on the forthcoming EU referendum, left Downing Street on Wednesday telling reporters “I’ll be back” and there’s “no deal” quickly adding “as far as I know.” Johnson has recently made a number of Eurosceptic inferences but has yet to definitively state his position.
The delay in Johnson declaring his loyalties comes as the Prime Minister continues to battle in Brussels over the terms of Britain’s renegotiated membership of the EU.
Sources close to Johnson say he’s “genuinely undecided” and “will make everything abundantly clear by the end of the week if the prime minister gets a deal on Friday.”
Throwing Nigel a Bone?
Two backbench Tory MPs have risked the wrath of their own whips this week by agreeing to address UKIP’s party conference in March.
Peter Bone, member for Wellingborough, and Tom Pursglove, member for Corby, have both vociferously campaigned for the UK to leave the EU. They have also endorsed the GO (Grassroots Out) movement which is supported by UKIP’s Nigel Farage.
In spite of their decision to address an opposition party conference, both MPs have insisted they are not laying the foundations for a defection. Nevertheless, as far as David Cameron is concerned, the timing is not ideal. The Prime Minister is currently in Brussels looking to negotiate a more favourable EU membership deal.
You don’t need a long memory to recall the last Tory MP who reneged and joined UKIP. Indeed, UKIP’s only current MP, Douglas Carswell, traded allegiances as recently as August 2014.
Ones to watch
- Next Tuesday will see the new Health Sciences Minister, George Freeman MP, launch Empower's Data4Health campaign.
- Next Monday the Communities and Local Government Committee will be taking evidence on business rates.
- Next week will also see Cameron return from Brussel's with a deal that he hopes will convince the eurosceptics within his own party to back the 'in' campaign.