GK Advisers Rebecca McMahon and Annabelle Black analyse the potential impact of smaller parties ahead of the general election.
Do fringe parties represent a genuine form of alternative politics, or are they just a last resort for voters disillusioned with mainstream politicians?
Keir Starmer emerged from the recent local elections confidently, with Labour winning the highest number of councillors, three more combined authorities, and a third term for London mayor, Sadiq Khan. However, both Starmer and Rishi Sunak will have noticed the success enjoyed by smaller parties. It is notoriously difficult to use local election results to predict the outcomes of subsequent elections with any confidence. Not only is there a greater willingness amongst the electorate to vote for smaller parties at local elections, but turnout is also lower and skewed towards specific demographics. Voters also see local elections as an opportunity to register a low-risk protest vote against the incumbent government. Historical trends suggest many disillusioned voters return to the two main parties during a general election. Could this trend be broken at the general election on 4 July? Will smaller parties play an important role in determining the results?
The success of the smaller parties in May’s local elections was exemplified by the Green Party, which won the highest number of councillors in its history. Smaller parties like the Greens are picking up some of the voters who have either been put off or underwhelmed by more mainstream parties. What is interesting in the Greens’ case is that this phenomenon is taking place on both sides of the political spectrum.
It is not surprising that some of Labour’s left flank has been won over by the socially liberal Greens. However, the Greens actually took more seats from the Conservatives than from Labour (32 to 31) in the local elections. The Greens are encroaching on traditionally Conservative seats – particularly in the South East – where anti-development sentiment runs high, and the Government is not perceived to have done enough to satisfy voters’ concerns on this issue. The Greens’ environmental focus is an increasing attraction for voters whose strand of conservatism is rooted in the conservation and preservation of natural surroundings.
The Liberal Democrats won 552 seats in the recent local elections, notably gaining control of Dorset council from the Conservatives. Whilst we can expect the Liberal Democrats to make headway in Dorset, Wokingham, and Tunbridge Wells, Sunak’s suggestion that the local election results point to a hung parliament and a Labour-led "coalition of chaos" is unlikely, considering smaller parties often perform better at local elections. This is because voters are more likely to switch if they think an issue is overlooked by their preferred party, or the stakes are low for that election, or they feel less pressure to vote strategically. Therefore, local elections are not always predictive of general elections due to differences in voter turnout and regional focus, for example, the Liberal Democrats' 16% local vote share exceeds their national polling performance. Although they will overturn a few Conservative majorities in key target constituencies, their impact at a general election will be limited as people feel more pressure to vote strategically.
Reform UK narrowly missed second place in the Blackpool South by-election, losing to the Conservatives by just 117 votes. The party boasted their best by-election result with a 16.8% vote share, which they have harnessed to suggest that they are “rapidly becoming the real opposition to Labour.” Reform will likely deepen Conservative losses to Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates at the general election, as ward-level data reveals Reform fielded 25 candidates in Sunderland and the Reform candidate came second in 9 of the 25 wards, and claimed more votes than the Conservatives in 16 of them. However, recent comparisons to UKIP’s heyday may be overstated, as at its peak, UKIP often secured a 20-30% vote share in by-elections. Also, in the 2016 English local elections, UKIP mobilised 1,400 council candidates, in comparison to the 316 that Reform fielded in May 2024. Therefore, whilst fringe parties offer mainstream alternatives, symbolising growing disillusionment with conventional politics, they offer little hope for seismic change at the upcoming general election.