Ten years ago today, the people of Scotland woke to the news that the nation had voted against independence from the United Kingdom. The simple question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” was rejected by 55-45%, triggering widely differing emotions across the country. Glee, despair, relief and anger were felt in our 2.2 million households.
There has never been a time in Scotland’s modern history where the crackle of excitement was so obvious. Enthusiasm for politics peaked. Answers to arcane and intractable constitutional questions were demanded. Those who cared little for politics were engaged.
The referendum saw historic levels of participation with a turnout of almost 85%, and many entered a polling station for the first time.
At the same time, this was a period of fierce disagreement and uncertainty. People formed into different camps, sometimes within the same family, with many completely unwilling to consider an opposing view.
Ten years on, the impact of the referendum campaign and the result are still felt. The vote has forever changed the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
Today’s Labour government knows that dissatisfaction with the Westminster system meant that the UK came within 200,000 votes of a break-up. And with support for independence remaining at around 45%, it’s up to the current UK government to make the case for the union.
Polling shows that the constitution, as an election issue, is dropping down the rankings of topics which matter to voters in Scotland. In October 2021, a quarter of Scots (25%) cited the constitution/devolution as among the three most important issues facing Scotland. The May edition of the Understanding Scotland series showed that this stands at a low 7%.
However, the electorate is still voting along constitutional lines.
While health, the cost-of-living and the economy are the key areas of concern, many still refuse to vote for a particular political party because of their stance on independence.
If you strip it back to bare policy, it’s quite difficult to tell Scotland’s political parties apart. The SNP and Labour have a broadly similar perspective on health, education and the economy. The question of independence is one of the few distinct dividing lines, so it’s little wonder that this continues to influence voting decisions.
Independence continues to be a key issue in the Scottish political debate, and that will remain the case in the years to come.
In a speech this week, first minister John Swinney discussed the ‘independence generation’, noting recent polling which showed that 63% of 16-34-year-olds would back independence at a future referendum.
This presents a significant challenge for the union, one which the current Labour government needs to take seriously.
It’s uncertain whether Scotland will ever take the leap of statehood, but we will never again see the kind of referendum that we had in 2014.
Any future vote on independence will only take place once it is accepted that a clear majority support it. The vote will be to confirm what is already known, rather than to test public opinion.
That shift in public opinion may occur ten, 20 or 50 years from now. Or never at all. If the SNP wants to achieve this shift in the short term, then it needs to focus on delivering in government to convince voters of Scotland’s ability to handle its own affairs.
Keir Starmer faces an equally urgent need to deliver for people in Scotland, otherwise we could see independence climb up the political agenda once again.
by John Cumming, Client manager