Despite the tricky, unpredictable, and fickle nature of making predictions about modern politics, one thing is for sure: 2024 is a make-or-break year for the SNP in Scotland. But if we were looking back from January 2025, we might say 2023 was the year the writing was clearly on the wall. Here's why.
It all began on one fateful February morning with the announcement of then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's resignation. A leader who guided her country through the COVID-19 pandemic and led her party to five electoral successes at Westminster and Holyrood. She gave her party genuine impetus and optimism that independence was imminent. In the process, she became one of the most recognisable figures in UK politics, and her sudden and unexpected departure left an imposing vacuum for any likely successor.
The subsequent leadership battle was bruising not just for the candidates involved but for the whole party as fissures that would blight the remainder of the year were brought to bear in front of an astonished Scottish public. Despite the fractious nature of the leadership contest, the eventual successor, Humza Yousaf, was honoured and confident he could carry on his predecessor's legacy.
However, Yousaf's first year has been dramatically overshadowed by the arrests of predecessor First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, her husband and former Chief Executive of the SNP Peter Murrell and the former Treasurer of the SNP Colin Beattie. All were questioned as part of Operation Branchform and the police investigation into the alleged misappropriation of over £660,000 earmarked for a second Scottish independence referendum.
A serious pincer movement is at play: the SNP has been struggling with the optics of high-profile arrests while battling widening policy dissent within the party.
Splits over the Highly Protected Marine Zones and the Deposit Return Scheme have culminated in the high-profile defections of Ash Regan MSP to Alba and Dr Lisa Cameron MP to the Conservatives.
Despite the ongoing, if infrequent, publication of the Building a New Scotland papers, independence is falling increasingly from the realms of the politically likely, never mind possible. Only last week, a former Yes Campaign strategist, Stephen Noon, argued that independence could take up to 20 years to become a reality.
The lack of perceived direction of independence and Yousaf's inability to suppress dissent from his own MSPs has affected the party's electoral viability, demonstrated in the results of Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. The SNP collapsed with the party's vote share dwindling to just 27.6% of the vote and surrendered a 20.4% swing to Labour, handing Labour's Michael Shanks a near 11,500 majority.
As Yousaf gears up for a much larger test in next year's upcoming General Election, a catastrophic defeat outlined in some polls of up to 50% of their current Westminster seats could be the last straw and lead to the end of Yousaf's troubled reign as First Minister.
With Kate Forbes and others patiently waiting in the wings, could a new voice and new approach be about to lead the SNP and Scotland in 2024?
Whatever happens next year, it is very likely 2023 will be remembered as the year the pieces were moved into place.
by Kieran Foley, Account Executive