Last weekend’s ICM poll may have captured the first shift in public attitudes towards the referendum, but could increasing support for the Yes side campaign be exactly what is needed to save the union?
Since the SNP won an outright majority in 2011 one of the most incredible things about the referendum campaign has been the stability of the polls. Be it Westminster’s bedroom tax or the publication of the SNP’s white paper, no poll has captured any shift in support for the Yes campaign away from its historic base of 30-33%. That is until last weekend’s ICM poll, which for the first time puts the Yes camp in striking distance of a majority. Undoubtedly, this poll will be celebrated in the Yes camp, but a competitive fight is arguably the unionist’s greatest asset.
Let’s not forget that while most politicians wanted a straight yes-no question, many across civic society were arguing for a second question that offered more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Recent polls continue to show when given a choice between further powers, independence or the status quo, most voters wanted further powers. However, independence also scores higher than the status quo, highlighting that voters are keen for an enhancement of the current devolution settlement.
However, instead of supporting a second question, each of the main unionist parties set up their own respective commissions to examine further devolution and are broadly pledging to support more powers for the Scottish Parliament after the next UK General Election.
Yet Scotland has been here before. In 1979 the Tories famously encouraged the electorate to vote against a Scottish Assembly on the basis that an incoming Conservative government would legislate for a stronger Scottish Parliament. And we know how that turned out. What guarantee does the electorate have that these pledges made in the heat of the campaign will make it into manifestos, let alone a programme for government?
Back to that poll and the increasing possibility of a yes vote. If necessity is the mother of all invention, then it is clear that further support for the yes campaign makes it crucial for the unionist parties to offer a clear (and collective?) alternative to the Scottish electorate, something that meets the current desire for more power but within the UK framework.
This worked in Canada in 1995 when 10 days out from their independence vote the Federalists, then trailing, pledged to give Quebec more powers and a veto over constitutional issues if Quebec voted to stay within Canada. In the end the Federalists turned it around and won, albeit by 1.16%. The promise to deliver on some key separatist demands undoubtedly tipped the balance in their favour.
Increasing support for the yes campaign could ensure more powers for the Scottish Parliament. By compelling all unionist parties to offer a clear, timetabled commitment to enhancing devolution, they will demonstrate that the Scottish people’s demand for more powers can be met from within the existing constitutional arrangements and not independence. Therefore the question is how many yes votes are needed to save the Union?
Callum Chomczuk
Account Director, Pagoda PR