The Holyrood year has drawn to a close this week, when nine months of continuing skirmish concluded with two days of political battle that cemented the political weather for the months to come. To varying degrees, MSPs will be shipping out of Edinburgh for the summer break, and some recuperation after a frenetic period in politics across the UK.
The final week was dominated by two major events at Holyrood, Tuesday’s announcement by the First Minister on her “reset” position on a second independence referendum and then the final showdown of the political year at FMQs. Both set against a continuing stooshie about the deal done between the Conservatives and DUP at Westminster.
For the FM, this was a difficult week, to end a year that has had her mostly, and uncharacteristically, on the back foot. Ever since her speech to the SNP conference in Glasgow, with its excessive rhetoric and accelerated timeline on independence, Nicola Sturgeon has been responding to events, not dictating them. For the SNP, that's unusual, and over the last decade, that's unheard of.
The SNP have largely dictated the political weather this century, as they plotted their rise from bit part player, to party of government and serious and continuing influence. Even in the aftermath of their relatively narrow defeat in the 2014 referendum, the nationalists seized on unionist complacency and pushed on further to their historic 2015 general election victory.
That seems a long time ago now. Whilst the FM can reflect on the 2017 general election as being the third under her leadership that has been won by the SNP, they have shown steady decline in vote share, and, crucially, momentum has shifted elsewhere.
This was the week when the FM had to define the party's strategy for the next decade, and she was completely trapped between two competing and irreconcilable strategies. She could have reprised her Glasgow speech, redoubled efforts to bring forward and win a second referendum, or she could have signalled a determined move back to the focus on managerial competence that had been the foundation stone of their rise to the political mainstream in recent years.
In the event, she did neither, and one suspects that neither side pushing her towards each of the alternative strategic options will have been happy with the outcome. In fact, one suspects that neither was the FM particularly satisfied with the compromise position she outlined on Tuesday.
Indyref2 stays “on the table”, and there was no mistaking the glee with which Ruth Davidson greeted that outcome. The strategy that had delivered her three very good election results in a row, remains in play,
On reflection, so far, so predictable. However, I wonder whether the SNP has a wider game in mind.
Boxing the Tories into a strategy overwhelmingly dominated by opposing a further referendum does have some advantages. Firstly, it keeps them off a wider policy agenda, one which will be undoubtedly required if they are to push on towards genuinely challenging for the keys to Bute House in 2021. Many of the more informed Scottish Conservative insiders have lamented the almost complete absence of genuine wider policy narrative over the last three years, and will be concerned by the prospect of continuing focus on the constitution.
However, those with greatest concern will be encouraged by the appointment of the superbly able Donald Cameron to the role of Party policy supremo, and hopeful that he can gain internal oxygen for genuine policy development. For Ruth and her growing band of elected representatives have to answer the question, “what are the conservatives for?”, and develop an agenda which helps distinguish themselves from a UK picture which is hardly encouraging for Tories at present. What makes a Conservative in Scotland, other than opposition to independence?
So the Nicola fudge on indyref2 had the advantage of keeping her main opponent where she wants them, and potentially doing less damage than arguably they would if they delivered real focus on the Government’s record on public services.
She will hope that she has done enough to move the agenda on, for a period, onto the Westminster backdrop, where the SNP have clearly made an impact this week in suggesting that the Conservative/DUP deal could and should have benefited Scotland. Given his promises of the previous week, the Secretary of State has been on the back foot, and the nationalists will hope that this kind of wider event can help re-enforce a ceiling on any further growth in Scottish Conservative support.
So, to FMQs, and a set piece exchange to end the term between Davidson and Sturgeon, with the former having a good day at the office on SNP farm payments. In that exchange was a summation of exactly the problem facing the First Minister. She and her predecessor have held the keys to Bute House for a decade, and eventually events prove a problem with real gaps in the story you want to tell about a government mastering its brief and with a reputation for competence. The farm payments situation is clearly an ongoing failure, and perhaps is one reason why the FM shied away entirely from shelving that second referendum to focus on the basics of government.
For me, the key question for the coming year is whether the SNP can turn the corner on some key domestic policy failings, particularly in education, and allow them to regain confidence in their governing abilities to leave indyref2 in the long grass.
Meantime, two months of sandcastles, surgeries and constituency photocalls await our 129 somewhat weary MSPs. Frankly, after the year we’ve had, we all deserve a break.