Last Thursday wasn’t a particularly good day for anyone in Wales describing themselves as a centrist. The Welsh Assembly elections saw Labour fall short of an overall majority by two seats, suffering the shock loss of its Rhondda seat to Plaid Cymru Leader Leanne Wood. On the other end of the spectrum, the elections saw UKIP win their first seats in the Senedd, with former Tory MPs Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless elected as regional Assembly Members alongside five UKIP colleagues. And the LibDems have been reduced to just one Assembly Member, Kirsty Williams, who quietly handed over leadership of the Welsh Liberal Democrats to Mark Williams MP following the party’s poor performance last week.
So what next for the Welsh Government? Grumblings in both Labour and Plaid have effectively ruled out the prospect of a coalition, despite the history of cooperation between the two parties, who worked together between 2007 and 2011. Welsh Labour MP and Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Owen Smith has already indicated his preference with the subtle comment “I certainly don’t think they [Labour] need to forge any sort of alliance with Plaid Cymru”. Equally subtly, Plaid’s Leanne Wood has said she has “no intention of propping up another party in government”.
These are perhaps moot points, as returning First Minister Carwyn Jones believes Labour has a “clear mandate to govern”, and is highly likely to form a minority government. However there are many who think Labour simply got lucky in this election, with the junior doctors strike in England diverting attention from the struggling Welsh NHS, and the Tata Steel crisis giving Labour a further platform, to cite just two examples. Moreover, there is little chance of the likes of Leanne Wood and Andrew RT Davies reining in their criticism of Welsh Labour simply because the election is over. Carwyn Jones will need to gain allies wherever he can to run an effective government – and boost Labour’s prospects for 2021.