The events in Manchester this week put politics and the general election into perspective as campaigning and the day-to-day at Holyrood resumed on Thursday. First Ministers questions was a circumspect affair which saw party leaders put politics to the side and pay tribute to the victims and emergency services after the horrific attack at the Manchester Arena on Monday.
As a result of the pause in the campaign, the SNP will release their manifesto for the General Election next Tuesday.
The SNP go into this election defending a spectacular result from 2015. Analysts and commentators have noted that this high water mark may be difficult to reach again and certainly the local election results would indicate that support for independence is slipping. We must bear in mind that the SNP took 50% of the vote in 2015 so any drop must be seen in perspective. Losing seats next month is expected but the SNP will continue to be Scotland’s dominant political force.
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With Conservative manifesto missteps over the elderly vote seeing their lead in the polls narrow, the SNP will be keen to make the most of their position of firmly supporting the WASPI campaign, the triple lock on pensions and the winter fuel allowance at their launch in Perth next week. Perceived Tory attacks on pensioners are a political gift for the SNP as we head towards 8 June.
SNP positions on the central theme of the campaign have varied in the past few weeks. The FM has said that the election was not about independence or a second referendum while her predecessor had said during a radio programme that “The general election is to reinforce the right of the Scottish parliament to decide when the time is right for another independence referendum, and if you get that sort of overwhelming vote for the SNP, then the PM’s opposition will crumble."
Either way, we will no doubt see clarity come Tuesday. We expect the central message will be identical to that of 2015 – that the a vote for the SNP is a vote for a party that will stand up for the interests of Scotland. While this message was stronger in a hung parliament scenario, with the struggles of the Labour party in Scotland and no polling evidence of a Lib Dem bounce, it is still a powerful motivator for people in the face of a likely UK Tory majority.
Here are a some things to look out for:
- A reinstated commitment to the triple lock on pensions and the winter fuel payment;
- Continue to pressure UK government to change the policy on Scottish Limited Partnerships, which help companies avoid tax;
- A demand to have a seat at the Brexit negotiation table;
- A commitment to get Scotland the best access to the EU single market;
- A demand that the full 13 promised frigates be built on the Clyde for the Royal Navy;
- Cancellation of the Trident replacement (Dreadnought Class nuclear armed submarines). The SNP’s position remains clear and popular in Scotland;
- Call for targeted support for the oil and gas industry including breaks for exploration and decommissioning;
- Call for support for the eternally delayed Carbon Capture and Storage project;
- A “route to market” for onshore wind after UK government cut subsidies;
- Reform of the voting system. Even though the current first past the post system the SNP have reconfirmed they still wish to see a proportional system for Westminster;
- Possible mitigation of the ‘Rape Clause’ by the Scottish Parliament;
- The wording on the mandate or process to have a second independence referendum.