Northern Ireland is reeling, unexpectedly, from an exciting Westminster election, including:
- a Ministerial resignation over allegedly homophobic remarks;
- a 15% turnover in seats, three of 18 changing hands;
- a decline in the Nationalist vote;
- a subsequent reshuffle by the major NI Executive party;
- rocky times ahead because of impasse over welfare reform and May 2016 Assembly elections.
So, what happened?
First, we have a complacency, born of broadly stable politics since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. As the rest of these islands have changed with alternating governments, we have stagnated in a unionist / nationalist stasis; historically high turnout was eight points less than GB.
Second, the clash between social conservatism and the modernity of globalised cosmopolitanism was sharply focussed, ironically through the ultra-modern tool of social media, as Health Minister Jim Wells MLA (DUP) faltered in public, on the rocks of equal marriage, instantly magnified by the opportunism of a clever blogger.
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Third, the unexpected gains by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) of two seats, in South Antrim and the westernmost, closest UK seat of them all in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, previously held by Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew, by a single vote - proof, if ever it were needed, that every single vote counts!
The DUP triumphed in Belfast East, from Alliance's Naomi Long, lost by DUP Leader and First Minister, Peter Robinson in 2010, but regained in a fierce contest by Gavin (no relation) Robinson; unfortunately, their fond dream of holding the Westminster balance of power was dashed by Tory revival.
Fourth, unpredicted decline in nationalist turnout, denting the inexorable rise of Sinn Fein in its pursuit of an all-Ireland 'royal flush' for centenary year 2016, with a takeover of the Irish Dáil in an anti-austerity vs economic competence discourse.
Fifth, returning to domestic priorities, the DUP saw fit to reshuffle its pack beyond the hapless Wells, with new Health, Finance, Enterprise and Junior Ministers, not upsetting the political balances within its majority Assembly team.
Sixth, the battle for supremacy over Sinn Fein now resumes, with the latter's insistence against compromise on welfare reform frustrated by a refreshed Conservative administration in Westminster - how can these squares be circled within a decreasing fiscal envelope? Therein lie the contradictions of the generosity of devolution. What Scotland so fervently desires, we so cavalierly discard.
Seventh, where stands the Union? We were promised so much, post IndyRef, but now we see Devo-Manc, the Powerhouses of the North (of England) and decentralisation beyond London, but are we in that debate? Sadly not.
Eighth, what of the united Ireland project? 1916 and 2016 echo with symbolic resonance; can Sinn Fein accede to that power base? Don't underestimate their resilience, but equally don't overestimate their messaging powers – we may have ‘peak SF’.
Ninth, the rock of power-sharing is solid in Stormont, creating productive business for the smart and fleet-of-foot public affairs industry, as it measures the 'normal' politics of GB / RoI against the peculiar local circumstances.
Tenth, we revel in our peculiarities and idiosyncrasies through which we enjoy business success and political status as change-makers, not just analysts!