This weekend Alex Salmond told voters that the SNP will be kingmaker in the next parliament, and will extract demanding concessions on Scotland from the Labour Party in return for supporting them in an agreement – be that confidence and supply or a vote-by-vote arrangement.
In an interview with the New Statesman, published yesterday, Salmond gave the other half of the story, saying that the SNP will vote down a Conservative Queen’s Speech, even if Labour has fewer seats.
These two interviews have provoked a backlash, with some commentators accusing him of trying to “sabotage” democracy. His statement that if “you hold the balance, you hold the power” has been described as “chilling” by some critics.
Though this apparently bullish behaviour may put off some voters, the truth is that Salmond has reason to be confident, because the SNP are the party that cannot lose this election.
An ICM poll for The Guardian on Monday forecast huge SNP gains at the next election at the expense of Labour. The poll put the SNP on 43 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent in Scotland which, on a uniform swing, would see the SNP jump from its current six MPs to take 43 of Scotland’s 59 seats. Even on a slightly lower prediction of 35-40 seats, which some polls have forecast, they are still likely to be the third largest party in Parliament in May.
Labour has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP for good reason from their perspective. First, Labour has a fundamentally different view on the future of the Union.
Second, it would be virtually impossible to receive support from the SNP in Westminster and condemn them in Holyrood simultaneously, as the current coalition’s difficulty distinguishing themselves shows. Though this would also be a problem for the SNP, they have the advantage that Holyrood is their “real” stomping ground – anything done at Westminster is a means to an end.
Third, a deal with the SNP would put off centre ground voters in England and undermine Labour’s pledge to continue with some austerity, albeit it less deep than the Conservatives’, and their attempts to address the party’s reputation for fiscal irresponsibility. As the recent Tory campaign poster illustrates, the party also risks being seen as being in the pocket of the SNP, a risk now exacerbated by Salmond’s recent interviews.
However, the truth is that though the SNP would be happy with an agreement with Labour after May 7th, there is speculation that what they are really hoping for is a Tory government. The overarching aim of the Scottish National Party – above issues like the renewal of Trident, or even ending austerity – is an independent Scotland. A Tory government would further advance their case that Scotland does not get the government it votes for, and therefore should go its own way.
So, while an agreement between the SNP and Labour in May is not the first choice of either party, the alternative is that both parties risk being accused of letting the Tories into government as a result of their refusal to do a deal. The Labour Party can play hard-ball and dare the SNP to vote down a Queen’s Speech in which they put forward a more left-of-centre programme, but given that Labour has supported the Charter for Budget Responsibility, which commits them to balancing day-to-day spending by 2017-18, the SNP could feasibly still reject a Labour programme on the basis that it is not progressive enough.
In the end it will come down to who can frame their decision not to make a pact as being in the interests of the Scottish people. Given that the SNP has offered to make a deal and Labour have not, it is likely to be them. The SNP also have the advantage of being an anti-Westminster-establishment party and the ability, as the smaller party, to frame rejecting a deal with the Labour party as “not selling out like the Lib Dems”.
The SNP, therefore, are in a position where they cannot lose in this election. Either Labour agree a deal with the them that reduces austerity and gives big concessions to Scotland, or the UK ends up with a Tory government which they can blame on Labour. Either way, the SNP only stand to gain.