The SNP’s failure to secure independence for Scotland last year should, in theory, have been a fatal blow for the party, consigning it to history alongside the other failed secessionist movements around the world.
Instead, the SNP has gone from strength to strength and took almost every single seat in Scotland at the General Election. The party’s cohort arrived in Westminster in May promising to fight for the wide ranging devolution settlement offered to the Scottish people following the referendum.
As the party flocks to Aberdeen for its annual conference, said to be the largest in its history, the events of the last year will heavily shape the discussion. Now that the SNP is playing a key role in politics South of Hadrian’s Wall, the discussions at Fringe events are likely to have a more national complexion than they will have done in previous years.
There is likely to be much debate about how the SNP Government in Edinburgh should use the new powers coming its way, alongside the inevitable questions over whether these new powers would be adequate.
The apparently unstoppable growth of the party has also made it more likely that the 2014 referendum was not quite the “once in a lifetime opportunity” that the then SNP Leader Alex declared it to be.
Recently, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested that several decisions due to be taken in Westminster, such as the renewal of Trident, the EU referendum and ongoing austerity, could ultimately trigger another referendum.
The possibility of such a referendum, and the terms on which it would take place, are likely to be the source of gossip and speculation around the conference.
However, with the Scottish Parliament elections due in a matter of months, the overall focus of the Conference is likely to be the performance of the SNP Government and the party’s effectiveness in Westminster.
The scandal around SNP MP Michelle Thomson’s alleged financial dealings that have recently dogged the party may give some indication of the growing pains the SNP faces, particularly in the context of increased scrutiny. And while the party’s overall popularity has surged, questions remain over how it will face some of the challenges facing the Scottish economy.
Energy is likely to be a key area of discussion at conference, particularly since cuts to renewable energy subsidies are likely to hit Scotland disproportionately. There will also be discussion of the impact of the decline in the North Sea Oil industry, which was once one of the key planks of SNP plans for an independent Scottish nation’s economic power.
Further, the debate over the issue of fracking within Scotland is likely to come under discussion. Indeed, fracking firms will be running stalls at the party conference to try and combat a recent campaign by senior party figures opposing fracking.
Ms Sturgeon has said that the party’s 2015 conference will be the “launch pad” for her party’s campaign for the next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, but in so doing, there will need to be clarity on the SNP’s position on the future and a demonstration to the Scottish people that it is capable of dealing with the increased financial strain the country will face in future.
While the SNP’s prospects at next year’s elections are strong, the upcoming conference provides it with a key opportunity to elaborate on its vision for the future.
DeHavilland has covered hundreds of fringe events and main speeches at the four main party conferences. Order a copy of their comprehensive conference briefing online here.