It’s decision time in the United States as voting draws to a close in this relentless, knife-edge presidential election. More than 77 million voters have already cast early ballots and, with just hours left before polls close, Americans remain congealed in their respective political camps in what appears to be a 50-50 electorate.
The variable late autumn winds typical in November are an apt metaphor for this quadrennial election season. In lieu of any true answers ahead of the forthcoming results, many of us are now sticking our proverbial fingers to the wind to glean a sense of what the final outcome will be.
There is some historical significance that shouldn’t be lost; the US is potentially on the verge of electing its first female president, who is also a woman of colour.
While many factors are at play, here are seven things we’ll be watching as the polls close.
Pennsylvania is the 'keystone' for victory, but Southeastern swing states could be early indicators
With each state in charge of its own election rules, there will be variation in how ballots are counted and when we get results. Pennsylvania is rightly considered the most pivotal of all states to win and will most likely decide who wins the White House. But the two swing states of North Carolina and Georgia will also be ones to watch early in the night as they will be among the first states where polls will close, and both are expected to count their votes relatively quickly.
In more modern history these states have favoured Republicans, though Joe Biden was able to flip Georgia in 2020 with two additional Democrats elected to the Senate. They remain must-win states for Donald Trump; however, Kamala Harris has put them in play for Democrats since becoming the nominee.
The most recent polling has shown both are still within her grasp and if she can pick either of them up early on, it would drastically reduce the pressure for her to win the all-important state of Pennsylvania. A Trump win in either or both North Carolina and Georgia – unless by a significantly wide margin – would not necessarily signify a broader prognosis for the remainder of the results.
Consequential mail-in ballots could draw out the counting
Americans have become accustomed to receiving projected results the night of, or morning after, election day. But 2020 upended that trend as an influx of mail-in ballots and a closer-than-polled result led to the ballot counting (and recounting) being drawn out for days before Biden was projected as the winner.
If swing states end up being as close as the current polling indicates, mail-in ballots could be decisive. But with varying state election laws, some of these ballots will be accepted even days after the polls close, and in Pennsylvania election officials are prohibited from even starting to count mail-in ballots until election day itself.
Already, thousands of mail-in ballots from Pennsylvania voters living abroad are being challenged by individuals disputing their legitimacy in an effort to have them thrown out.
If the results are tight enough after Tuesday night and a significant number of mail-in ballots are yet to be counted, the process could be further drawn out before there’s any indication of a projected winner.
If Harris wins, women will power her victory
The gender gap among voters this year is significant, with women overwhelmingly supporting Harris and men overwhelmingly supporting Trump – separated by a margin of 34 points. If Harris does ultimately win it will be largely powered by a surge in turnout among women.
This is also the first presidential election to take place after the Supreme Court overturned the law protecting abortion rights in the US, and subsequent ballot initiatives have shown abortion to be a winning issue for Democrats, even in heavily Republican states like Kansas two years ago. As part of her closing message, Harris has made abortion a central focus, and a few states – notably Arizona and Florida – also have abortion laws on the ballot papers this year. There is an open question as to how significantly it will drive voter turnout and whether that could benefit Harris.
What about that Iowa poll?
The much-discussed poll released Sunday showing a surprising three-point Harris lead in Iowa should be taken with caution, in spite of the widely-held high regard for the pollster who conducted it. Iowa has not voted for a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2012, its rural population is overwhelmingly white and nearly all its statewide office holders are Republican. Neither candidate has made much investment in the state this election, given its perceived insignificance in determining the outcome.
But with that said, the Iowa poll could be a sign that parts of the Midwest – including neighbouring swing states like Wisconsin – may be more open to shifting than they previously appeared. And beneath the headline of the poll were indications that women – particularly those over 65 and those who are registered independents – are breaking significantly for Harris.
Further, the six electoral votes from Iowa would add additional padding for Harris that could be the difference between a close loss or reaching the critical Electoral College threshold of 270 votes. She can, of course, lose Iowa and still win the presidency. For Trump, however, an Iowa loss would be more devastating to his chances.
On polling analysis more broadly, both NBC News and polling guru Nate Silver have raised the issue of ‘herding’ and the lack of outlier polls in this election cycle. A truly 50-50 race should, theoretically, produce more variation in the data due to random chance, but that is not being reflected in the vast majority of what we’re seeing, and this may be a weighting choice by pollsters as they hedge their bets and follow the herd.
If this is the case, whatever precipitates after election day could be wildly different than what the polls show. It’s not impossible that either candidate could sweep all or most of the swing states, though we can’t know for certain whether such a scenario would tip toward Trump or Harris.
Expect disputed results, legal challenges and other chaos
The prospect of political violence still haunts the US, with flashbacks of the January 6 attack on the Capitol still fresh in many minds. Extremist groups backing Trump have signalled on social media their intent to organise a revolt if he loses. Many ballot counting centres in the critical swing states will be equipped with bullet-proof glass and other high security measures as election workers tally the votes.
In the absence of an early projection, both candidates will be motivated to steer the narrative in their favour. More nefariously, Trump has already made clear his intent to challenge any losing result and has alluded to an unspecified “little secret”between him and the House Speaker that would help Republicans win this week.
As states go to certify their respective results, there should be little doubt that Trump will attempt to circumvent the system to claim a legitimate victory if things don’t go his way.
Harris has put up a fight that Biden could not
For anxious Democrats hoping to put an end to the spectre of a second Trump presidency, many may question whether Harris was the appropriate conduit to victory. If she does win, she will be lauded for strategically exploiting Trump’s weaknesses and capitalising on a revitalised energy among Democrats. If she loses, a not-insignificant segment of her party will point in hindsight to countless perceived missteps and her weaknesses and ambiguities as a communicator.
Furthermore, a Harris loss in Pennsylvania would surely stoke criticism of her choice for running mate – having passed over the state's popular governor, Josh Shapiro, and his accompanying bi-partisan creds for the more wildcard pick of Minnesota governor Tim Walz.
But whether Harris is ultimately able to stick the landing, the gruelling nature of her campaign these past few months against Trump has further reinforced the notion that Biden would not have been up to the task. His recklessly worded comment last week apparently characterising Trump supporters as “garbage” – a potentially campaign-ending gaffe for the Democrats after disparaging comments at a Trump rally about Puerto Rico – epitomises why putting Harris at the top of the ticket was necessary. She has vastly expanded the array of possible paths to victory, even if those paths ultimately fall short of the White House.
Pay attention to the Congressional races too
Finally, there is the often-overlooked fact that Americans will also be voting in some critical races for the House and Senate with several Democrats potentially on the verge of losing seats which would tip the balance in favour of Republicans. For a Harris presidency, this could mean the difference between a productive term passing her agenda through Congress or a complete roadblock. A Trump presidency could be further enabled by a Republican-controlled legislative branch, something he was never afforded in his first term and which helped stymie his worst impulses.
The Senate races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Montana will be ones to watch. If Democrats lose these seats, Americans could be in for a very different looking Congress.