As we pass the ‘100 days to go’ milestone, this week has been one of the most eventful in the long-running battle over Scottish independence – particularly when it comes to the importance of reputation.
Throughout the hard-fought campaign, both sides of the debate have sought to claim ownership of the political momentum. But as the big vote draws ever closer, which campaign – Yes or No – really has “The Big Mo”?
Despite claims from both sides, polling conducted at the end of May indicates little change in voting intentions. Looking only at those certain to vote, TNS put support for independence at 34%, support for the UK at 44% and ‘undecideds’ on 22%. Allowing for margins of error, these results mirror the findings of a TNS poll conducted a month earlier, at the end of April. So with so much hanging in the balance, what should each campaign be doing to win over that 22%?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, public image will be a crucial element for both. While the debate surrounding the big issues - currency, EU membership and the cost of new Scottish institutions - continues, many undecided voters aren't sure who to turn to for 'the facts'. Even before contradictory claims about a £1000 independence bonus and £1400 UK dividend were made, 39% of the public felt that neither campaign was providing trustworthy information - “a plague on both your houses” as far as the electorate is concerned.
And this situation looks set to continue right up to polling day, as the increasingly fractious relationship between the Scottish and UK governments creates confusion over facts and figures and whether Scotland would be better or worse off under independence.
Faced with this conundrum, undecided voters might yet be left to judge the strength of each constitutional case on nothing more than the image and reputation of each broad campaign. (A prospect brought into sharper focus this week by the Scottish Government’s refusal to set out the costs of establishing an independent state ahead of September’s vote.)
And to some degree, both Yes Scotland and Better Together know how important their reputation will be as referendum day draws closer. Two recent defections to the Yes camp from Labour were heralded by independence supporters, and Better Together certainly wasn't shy about publicising JK Rowling's significant donation either.
Equally, with only sixteen weeks to go, both sides of the debate have shown themselves perfectly capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - whether it be the controversy surrounding Alastair Darling's New Statesman interview (and questions around whether he attributed the Nazi concept of ‘blood and soil’ nationalism to the SNP) , or the debacle caused by Alex Salmond's special adviser Campbell Gunn, who apologised after making false claims about Labour activist and "ordinary mum" Clare Lally.
This said, where neither campaign is immune, special mention must also be given to those Yes fanatics who took to Twitter to attack JK Rowling and before that, Barack Obama and David Bowie. Surely nobody has done more to undermine Yes Scotland's positive and progressive public image than this handful of 'cybernat' keyboard warriors. The overwhelming majority of moderate Yes supporters must be collectively putting their head in their hands in frustration.
Just how much of an impact all these recent gaffes will have on undecided voters remains to be seen, but it is becoming increasingly clear that retaining a positive public image will be a crucial cornerstone of the winning campaign.
Robin Murphy
Account Executive, Orbit Communications