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Seven months ago Scotland voted to stay part of the United Kingdom.
But the independence issue has not gone away. Despite losing the referendum the SNP are now claiming over 100,000 members and polls have them winning a clear majority of Scottish seats.
A March 31st ComRes/ITV poll had the SNP on 43% with Labour on 37% but the Sunday Times/Panelbase poll (April 5th) had the SNP leading Labour by 45% to 29%.
After all the SNP don’t need 50%, or even 45%, to win a parliamentary seat. Depending on the political circumstances of individual constituencies, seats can be won with as little as 33% - or perhaps lower.
Not only more than enough to deprive Ed Miliband of the keys to 10 Downing Street but it is sufficient to raise the issue of a second referendum.
And this prospect of further constitutional turmoil has resulted in a fast growing tactical voting campaign designed to deny the SNP a majority of seats.
Scotland’s Union, Forward Together, Scotland’s Big Voice and United against Separation have all been launched in the past few months. Forward Together based in Perthshire is targeting SNP MP Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) who has a 4,379 majority and is being challenged by a local established Conservative councillor.
Victor Clements, one of Forward Together’s six board members, said: “It became obvious that [the independence question] was not going to go away. A lot of people have been asking who they should vote for in the general election to stop the SNP and we are putting the essential information in front of them.”
For tactical voters the big prize would be stopping Alex Salmond winning the Gordon constituency- a seat previously held by Liberal Democrat Malcolm Bruce with a majority of 6,748. Mini buses filled with activists from other parts of Scotland have travelled to the constituency seeking support for Christine Jardine, Bruce’s intended replacement. A big ask perhaps but Alex Salmond is polarising politician and he may find that his path to Westminster is not quite as straightforward as he had first presumed.
Will tactical voting make a difference? Maybe, but unless more Scots tune into the possibility of using their votes negatively rather than positively to slow down the SNP’s bandwagon it is unlikely that the strategy will make any significant difference to more than a few individual constituencies.