.gif)
It was always assumed that with Ed Miliband in such a precariously weak position in terms of his personal polling, that the opinion polls would inevitably narrow as it became a competition of personalities rather than parties.
However things changed last week. The two election debates seemed to go well for Miliband and, since then, there has been a spate of polls that will be calming nerves in Labour HQ that had been building as the polls shifted toward Cameron in recent weeks.
So, this seems to be the week Labour pulled it back; the shift towards the Conservatives had seemed terminal for the party, but following successful debates and a good ‘air war’, last week the polls showed signs of turning around. Seven polls have put Labour ahead and comparatively few, just three, put the Tories ahead, with two draws. One poll even put Labour 6 points ahead. The UK Polling Report rolling average has now also returned to a Labour lead; we had reported a few weeks ago that it had gone Tory for the first time.
All in all, Labour will be feeling like the momentum has shifted in their favour. Today Labour launches its manifesto and voters will have, for the first time, the opportunity to see in-depth exactly what Labour would do with their money. Perhaps more importantly, tomorrow the Tories launch theirs, giving voters the opportunity to compare and contrast.
Polling this far out from ‘The Only Poll That Matters’ is in many ways a fool’s errand. Let’s not forget that David Cameron’s road to Downing Street began with an Inheritance Tax cut, a promise so persuasive it stopped Gordon Brown calling an election in that fateful Autumn of 2007. The Tories will be hoping for a repeat.
And it really could be decisive. Last week not a single vote was cast, for obvious reasons. This week, millions of voters will start to receive their postal votes (15.3% of votes were by post in 2010) and so, by the end of this week, the votes will begin trickling in. For Labour, it could all be for naught unless they have a good launch today.
Going into the election we assumed the Tories would win the personality contest and Labour would seek to win the policy – the irony is that the parties enter the first week of voting with both up for grabs.