The Liberal Democrats gathered in Brighton after a record result at the General Election, which saw 72 Lib Dem MPs returned to Westminster.
Somewhat heady on electoral success, the atmosphere combined self-deprecation and ebullience. But beneath the frequent celebration of extraordinary triumph, sits an awareness that Ed Davey has some potentially tough strategic dilemmas in the years ahead.
Reasons to be cheerful
Scale: When 72 MPs stood up at the start of the Conference Rally event, it conveyed a powerful message that this is a party with the means to make an impact again. The Lib Dems also start this parliament as a united force. Against a Labour super majority and Conservative disarray – this unity matters.
Status: Wrestling third-party status from the SNP has immediate benefits. Not just for the questions at PMQs, but because it secures a voice on parliament’s committees and leadership of three (Health, EFRA and Petitions). It also restores hard-lost operational infrastructure, from a suite of offices just off the Commons Chamber to a hoard of new parliamentary staff and a new team of press officers and political advisers. In short, the Lib Dems now have the tools they need to make an impact.
Strategy: The Lib Dems have tried, tested and look set to continue with a political strategy of issue centric campaigning that resonates with their voters. This is smart. This approach is supported by the political orientation of its MPs to serve constituents in traditionally Conservative Shire seats, predominantly in the south of England, and a coalition of voters from squeezed progressives to borrowed centrist Tories (replacing the hotchpotch electorate of previous generations, which often hampered an electoral market-based approach).
Challenges ahead
It is well understood that Lib Dem success in 2024 was achieved by borrowing centrist/Tory voters, fed up with the Conservatives, but not sufficiently concerned about enabling a Labour victory; and by offering a smattering of progressive hope to Labour voters where Labour had no chance of success.
The challenge ahead is how to build on this position. First, how to maintain borrowed Conservative voters should their attitudes towards Labour shift to negative over five years in power, or should their view of the Conservatives improve under new leadership.
Second, how to oppose Labour effectively, and whether to do this from a centrist/right of Labour position, in line with the views of many of their new voters, or from a progressive position, urging Labour to go further and faster, which will be the party’s instinct. And third, how to broaden their appeal to win seats from Labour in 2029, something that may prove essential if Reform voters return to the Tory fold or if the party wants to build its presence in the north/urban areas.
The party does not yet have all the answers, which will frustrate some commentors today, but they are probably right to keep their options open for the time being. Events outside their control will likely play a significant role in shaping the path ahead, and Davey has already proven that he won’t be afraid of pragmatic opportunism.
Public affairs takeaways
Business was back: Notable was the return of business delegates to this conference. The Lib Dems credibly briefed that they had attracted £1m in corporate registrations. “Three times last year’s attendance”, claimed a Lib Dem business spokesperson. Certainly, lobbyists were back on a scale not seen in the last decade. The Lib Dems must ensure they can cope with the growing interest they will experience next year and have a clearer view of where business engagement fits alongside predominantly member-focused activity.
It’s early days: This conference was held before most (even internally) had worked out who’s who in the new parliamentary party; before the appointment of a post-election front bench (a reshuffle is due as soon as parliament returns); and just days after Layla Moran (Health), Alistair Carmichael (EFRA) and James Stone (Petitions) secured their Select Committee Chairs. More ambitious new MPs could be found on the fringes and the conference stage, making clear plays for preferment in favourite policy areas should shadow positions be available. Meanwhile, some in the new intake described being bewildered by Westminster, the practical struggles of email overload, and getting parliamentary staff recruited and security cleared. Many of the Lib Dem 72 are still in the early days of working out what their priorities should be and how to operate.
Rooting like knotweed: From day one, Lib Dem MPs have been instructed to dig in and focus on building reputations for local action. Accordingly, when engaging these MPs, it will be most effective if advocacy includes a constituency component, whether that be a visit, briefing, or social content.
Watch out for Lib Dem campaigns: When the Lib Dems choose to focus on something, they are going to make an impact, and beware organisations caught in the crosshairs. Ed Davey referenced health, social care, the cost of living, sewage, nature and the climate during his speech.
Influencing Lib Dem policy: Conference still retains a policy making function – with lengthy policy debates, penetrating pre-consultations, and meaningful member votes. Spokespeople can heavily sway member opinion, but it does not always work this way. When seeking to influence Lib Dem policy direction, it is worth bearing in mind. Working groups of the Federal Policy Committee, and the HQ policy development team, are a traditionally under engaged option, vs the Spokespeople and Adviser route, and worth keeping in mind.
Policy developments
The Lib Dems passed motions updating their policies in the following areas:
- Liberalising and devolving Sunday Trading Laws
- Regulating Buy Now, Pay Later
- Replacing OFWAT with a new Clean Water Authority
- Improving pregnancy and the neonatal services
- Improving access to local health services
- Improving support for family carers
- Reversing cuts to bereavement support payments and supporting kinship carers
- Abolishing the two-child benefit cap.
- Supporting disadvantaged children throughout education
- Protecting and promoting music venues and education
- Restoring European mobility for young people
- Tackling the prisons crisis
- Expanding National Nature Parks and their funding
- Replacing First Past the Post with Single Transferable Vote
- Demanding restoration of Government focus on international development
If you would like to get in touch with the team, please contact Head of Public Affairs, Tim Snowball, at tim.snowball@mhpgroup.com