Where do we even begin?
Two weeks ago, we concluded that the Conservatives’ dreadful showing in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections had the potential to sow intra-party discontent, that could spell the beginning of the end for Boris Johnson’s time in Downing Street. With all due respect to Oliver Dowden, whose resignation was – at the time – a major development, we really did not know what the following fortnight had in store…
Despite quickly becoming one of the most turbulent periods for British politics in living memory (the past day alone has had enough intrigue to fill an anthology), the key facts are these: Boris Johnson is no longer Conservative leader and in the not-so-distant future he will no longer be prime minister. Almost nobody knows what the coming months will hold for Number 10 and the domestic political environment at large.
It is now our unenviable task to condense this frenzied saga into some form of digestible content. No mean feat.
A series of ‘unforgivable’ events
A fair case can be made to suggest that Boris Johnson’s premiership has been ailing since October 2021, when ‘lobbygate’ was sparked, after Downing Street instructed MPs to vote in favour of reforming rules on MP standards, when senior Tory backbencher Owen Paterson was found to have been paid over £100,000 a year to lobby for two private companies. Johnson described the initial government response as a ‘total mistake’ - a line that the Number 10 press team would find itself copying and pasting over the following nine months.
Revelations of ‘partygate’, and the fallout following the high-profile Sue Gray report, delivered further blows to the PM’s position, sparking significant trouble and coinciding with a notable downturn in polling performance for the Conservatives. Johnson’s comparatively narrow ‘victory’ in early June’s Conservative party confidence vote, continued to steer his leadership off course, whilst the aforementioned drubbing during late June’s by-elections threw further rocks into the mix.
Whilst the aforementioned developments took up the lion’s share of media space, the underlying issue of ‘pestminster’ had until recently, assumed less of a high-profile role. The revelation that former Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish, had been caught watching pornography in the House of Commons chamber certainly made the headlines. However, under closer inspection, Parish’s case added to a growing list of Conservative MPs, who have been involved in, or accused of, sexual misconduct under the Johnson government. Although the ‘mishandling’ of these incidents was picked up by a number of publications, ‘pestminster’ remained comparatively under the radar.
This situation changed on 29June when Chris Pincher, deputy chief whip and long-time Johnson ally, was accused by two men of drunkenly groping them during an event in London’s Carlton Club. Pincher resigned from his government role the following morning, but - despite calls by members of the Conservative party and the opposition – the prime minister did not immediately remove Pincher’s party whip. The subsequent outcry meant that Johnson changed his position the following day, but by that time, the damage was arguably done; not least when it emerged that Pincher had faced multiple allegations of sexual harassment, prior to being appointed deputy chief whip in February 2022.
Downing Street was quick to stress that the PM did not know about the misconduct claims surrounding Pincher prior to his promotion, and this line was re-iterated by multiple government ministers, whilst on their media rounds. That line changed on 4 July, when the PM’s official spokesperson admitted that Johnson was aware of concerns about Pincher’s conduct prior to granting him the senior government role but had not received any formal complaint, meaning that he did not feel he had the grounds to block the appointment. When Lord Simon McDonald – former permanent secretary in the Foreign Office, published a letter claiming that Johnson had previously been briefed about a formal complaint regarding Pincher’s conduct, the tone changed significantly.
A fatal ‘mistake’
Given the aforementioned challenges that the PM has been facing for months, we cannot conclusively ascribe yesterday’s resignation to any one cause. That said McDonald’s letter could certainly be seen as the fuel that sparked a raging political fire.
Within hours of McDonald’s letter, Labour had called for an urgent question in Parliament, focused on previous allegations against Pincher and the PM’s knowledge of these accusations. The event was attended by a number of Conservative MPs who openly criticised their party leader for his management of the situation. Within hours, several backbenchers were beginning to call for Johnson’s resignation. By the early evening, Downing Street’s line had changed. Where the PM initially claimed that he had forgotten about the briefing, he was now willing to admit that it was a ‘mistake’ to appoint Pincher to the role; an admission that Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives, would later describe as ‘unforgivable’.
Within minutes of the PM’s confession, health secretary Sajid Javid MP announced that he would be resigning from the cabinet, pointedly stating that he could not serve the government any longer in ‘good conscience’. In normal circumstances, the resignation of a senior cabinet member would dominate the headlines for days. However, ten minutes later, a further hammer blow was delivered when chancellor Rishi Sunak, followed suit by announcing his own resignation; insinuating that the government was no longer carrying out its duty ‘properly, competently and seriously.’
Further resignations from several junior ministers, trade envoys and principal private secretaries carried on through the evening, whilst Mr Johnson scrambled to replace his lost secretaries. Despite successfully appointing Steve Barclay as health secretary and Nadhim Zahawi as chancellor within hours of the positions becoming vacant, it was clear that the situation was becoming perilous for the PM.
Then came ‘resignation Wednesday’, where a record 40 ministers and aides departed their roles in a 24-hour period, in protest against Johnson’s refusal to step down from his role. Ironically, it wasn’t the resignations that had the most impact, but rather the ministers who stayed. After two bruising sessions at PM Questions and the House of Commons Liaison Committee, a number of cabinet members including transport secretary, Grant Shapps, home secretary, Priti Patel and - somewhat astonishingly - newly appointed chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, made visits to number 10, where they are said to have urged him to resign. Amidst rumours that levelling up secretary Michael Gove had – not for the first time – led this coordinated effort, Johnson made his addition to the growing list of outbound ministers in a somewhat Shakespearian fashion, by sacking him for ‘disloyalty’.
Despite holding on through the night, it was clear by the morning that the PM’s position was no longer tenable. Early in the afternoon, the infamous lectern appeared outside Number 10, and Johnson announced that he would be stepping down as Conservative party leader – maintaining his role in Downing Street until the Party had gone through the process of selecting its new leader. Despite leading the Conservatives to their biggest election win in over 30 years, the bell had finally tolled for the embattled prime minister.
An ‘heiry’ situation
The question on everyone’s lips is now: what happens next?
Whilst many senior Conservatives have been touted for a prospective leadership position, it is not yet clear who will be replacing Johnson and collecting the keys to Number 10. At the time of writing this – and perhaps surprisingly, despite signalling his intention to run as far back as January – it is being reported that foreign affairs select committee chair, Tom Tugendhat MP has the most support among Conservative MPs.
Meanwhile, Javid’s prompt resignation and emotive speech following Wednesday’s PMQ’s have propelled the former health Secretary ‘up the charts’ as a potential leadership contender. His (allegedly coincidental) ‘co-resigner’ Rishi Sunak is also being touted to launch a bid, having all but recovered from his recent tax-related difficulties, while foreign secretary Liz Truss, is rumoured to have significant sway amongst backbench Conservatives and the party membership.
A long list of additional contenders, ranging from attorney general Suella Braverman and backbench ‘hard man’ Steve Baker, through to newly appointed Welsh secretary, Robert Buckland and 1922 chair, Sir Graham Brady have all been mooted. In many respects, it might be more difficult to identify a Conservative MP who isn’t currently rumoured to have their eyes on the ultimate political prize.
Whoever the eventual successor is, one thing is certain: They will have a huge brief on their hands. Managing the ongoing fallout surrounding the Brexit agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol, coordinating the UK’s continued support for Ukraine, addressing a cost of living crisis that is continuing to grow in scale, securing the UK’s progress towards post-pandemic recovery and reversing the Conservatives’ ailing reputation amongst voters, will all be part of the day job. Perhaps this inevitability will prove enough to dissuade at least one campaign team from assembling…