Yesterday, Wednesday 2nd November, Westminster Advisers had the pleasure of hosting a panel event with Kirsty Blackman MP (SNP), Tony Grew (Sunday Times), and Andy Silvester (IoD) to discuss the topic of our upcoming report, “Who’s holding the government to account?”.
With the Labour Party in disarray and largely unable to provide effective scrutiny, we wanted to explore who exactly is holding the government to account. Any government needs healthy scrutiny and opposition – a fact recognised even by some current cabinet ministers.
Labour’s inability to do its job as the official opposition was described by one of our panellists as nothing short of a parliamentary crisis. Individual Labour MPs are making a strong case from the backbenches and from select committees, but collectively the party is failing to organise. Although the SNP are trying to establish themselves as the ‘real opposition’ to the Conservatives, they are hampered by Labour’s failure to establish clear policy positions and mobilise in Parliament. The SNP has also found itself boxed in by the new EVEL procedures, which prevents the party from blocking proposed laws that do not apply to Scotland.
Instead, an increasing amount of opposition in the House of Commons is coming from the Conservative backbenches. Theresa May only has a working majority of 17 (with Richmond Park now vacant following Zac Goldsmith’s resignation), so a relatively small number of MPs will be able to veto policies they don’t like. A new ‘awkward squad’ of Tory MPs includes those sacked by May who want to keep the modernisers’ flame alight, with Nicky Morgan leading the charge in that respect. This liberal wing of the party is at direct odds with the well-established Eurosceptic backbench squad, and the two factions are likely be diametrically opposed on how the UK should exit the EU. Theresa May will be hemmed in on her negotiation strategy – damned if she does; damned if she doesn’t. One panellist noted that Gavin Williamson, the chief whip, currently has the toughest job in government. Another foresaw Theresa May going to the country next year to win a mandate and overcome her internal opponents.
Discussion also touched on the role of the House of Lords, with peers having achieved some major wins in the recent past, most notably over planned cuts to tax credits. The upper house is well suited to scrutinising legislation, with its procedures allowing the whole house to scrutinise bills line-by-line unlike the Commons. Ultimately, however, the Lords is a revising chamber and it would be inappropriate for its unelected members to provide blanket opposition.
Outside of Westminster, devolved administrations in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh could choose to actively block the government’s agenda by, for example, refusing to pass legislative consent motions.
The business community has less incentive to cooperate with the Conservatives than at any time in the recent past, due to Labour’s inability to influence the debate. Indeed, business interests are communicating and cooperating with each other in an almost unprecedented way as Brexit poses a common threat. Business Secretary Greg Clark is hosting weekly summits with the main players to keep lines of communication open. As we have already seen, currency markets will offer instant reactions to government announcements. They could potentially drive down the value of the sterling even further if the government takes decisions not to their liking.
Ultimately, it is the electorate who will be the judges of Theresa May’s performance. Theresa May’s government is triangulating policies, attempting to hit the sweet spot with voters in order to broaden the Conservatives’ base of support. The public enjoys a growing role and more opportunities to make their voice heard, no longer consigned to offering its verdict at election time only. Social media may generate more noise than light, but public petitions can act as a veto when used to demonstrate the depth of feeling on a particular issue.
Overall, the Conservatives cannot become complacent. Politics and nature abhor a vacuum, and if the Labour Party isn’t interested in providing effective opposition other interests will step in.