This week marks a year since Scotland’s “once in a generation” referendum. While Harold Wilson quipped that “a week was a long time in politics” in Scotland it appears that a “generation” has somewhat shortened.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced that the timings and conditions for a fresh referendum will be laid out in the SNP’s May 2016 manifesto. She said, “if there is in the future another referendum - whether that’s in five years, ten years or whenever - it will be down to the people of Scotland to decide whether they want to vote for independence or not”.
The announcement is timed to distract attention from other events. Firstly, many believe that Jeremy Corbyn’s election see former Labour voters who have recently voted SNP return home. Secondly the SNP government has recently experienced severe criticism over their perceived difficulties in a number of areas including the failure of Police Scotland, falling literacy and numeracy standards in primary schools and problems in the NHS.
But it would be wrong to assume that a second referendum is imminent. The outlook for Scotland’s economy is not as rosy as it was painted a year ago. In May 2014 Scottish North Sea five year projected oil revenues were estimated to be between £16 bn and £39bn; however the June 2015 figure was in the range £2.4bn to £10.8bn-a huge reduction. Indeed the Office for Budget Responsibility argues from 2020 onwards it would be wise to plan for a zero figure. In their view total North Sea revenues in the two decades from 2020 would total just £2.1bn, equivalent to a single year’s income in a bad year now.
And according to an Oil and Gas UK report 65,000 jobs have been lost since early 2014, exploration is at its lowest since the 1970’s and investment is falling. This has led to a widening of the budget deficit gap compared to the UK position. The Institute for Fiscal Studies calculate that Scotland now has a budget deficit gap of 8.6% of GDP-more than double the UK’s 4%.
Nicola Sturgeon is an astute politician-more so than her predecessor. She knows that she has to keep the “Independence at all costs” section of her party happy, but she also knows if she calls a second referendum at the wrong time she will go down in history as having blown the chance of independence for perhaps the next century. Not a legacy that she would find attractive.