In exactly two weeks’ time, on Friday 6th May, the Week in Scotland blogger will no doubt be offering some early thoughts on the overnight results of the fifth devolved Scottish elections. Pictures and tweets will have already recorded the fist pumps of success for those elected and the magnanimous-in-defeat thoughts of those not. So normally, at this point of the campaign, yours truly would be surveying the policies on offer and typing some thoughtful (hopefully!) insight on the different proposals and how these are playing out with voters, when compared with the polling numbers.
Except something’s missing. We are just over 300 hours from the opening of the polls and we don’t have a manifesto from Labour, Scotland’s (for now) official opposition. And neither do they seem in a hurry to publish, with a launch now scheduled for next Wednesday 28th April.
Yes, we’ve had the drip feed of pledges on some of the key issues such as tax, skills and education – many of which are distinctive from SNP promises - but the lack of a formal document is casting candidates adrift when speaking to voters and addressing the many hustings events across Scotland this month.
Just this week, at a high-profile business debate, one of Labour’s ‘up and coming’ candidates in Edinburgh was mocked (by an 18-year-old first-time voter) for his inability to confirm what Scottish Labour was proposing on enterprise education. Labour’s selection of candidates for Edinburgh city seats was completed in January 2014 and yet they are out pounding the streets with neither policy compass nor liferaft. If similar exchanges are happening on doorsteps or church halls in other parts of the country, even in a minority of situations, then the Scottish Labour leadership are in danger of rewriting the longest suicide note in history – but this time by omission.
None of this is helped by the fact that the constitutional question remains an important defining issue. The expectation that we might be healing some of the indyref schisms has been hindered by the savvy-in-the-circumstances decision by Ruth Davidson to position Scottish Conservatives as the official defenders of the Union. And it looks to be working. Their vote – one of the most dependable over the last 17 years in Scottish elections - is holding firm and probably increasing by a few percentage points/seats whilst Labour’s dissipates steeply.
The consequence of this is seen in today’s Survation poll for the Daily Record suggesting that Labour and Conservatives are scrapping it out in a too-close-to-call race for second-largest party. Translated into seat projections, some suggest that this could mean 70 seats for the SNP, 21 for Conservatives, 20 for Labour, 12 for Greens and six for Willie Rennie’s LibDems.
Asked how they intended to use their constituency (FPP) vote, 53% of participants said they would back the SNP, followed by Labour in second place on 18%. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had 17% and 7% support, respectively. On the regional (top-up) vote, the SNP was again the most popular party with 43% of support. Conservatives polled at 18%, one point ahead of Labour on 17%. The Scottish Greens were supported by 11% of participants, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 7% and UKIP on 4%.
It would seem a safe bet that the midday exchanges at First Minister’s Question Time will continue to feature female voices, but there remains no certainty that Kezia Dugdale will be first on her feet.
newsdirect has produced a post-election timeline for May, June and beyond. Using confirmed dates, expected announcements, parliamentary standing orders and a look back at 2011, we’ve put together a best guess at the week-by-week developments. Get in touch if you’d like a copy.