Before the Assembly collapsed in January this year – in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal – there were extraordinary scenes. In the days in December 2016 all the parties except the DUP left the Chamber as the First Minister, Arlene Foster, got up to defend her role in making the RHI happen. Northern Irish scandals always seem to come at Christmas.
Since then, there has been an Assembly election – remarkable in itself because for the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, unionist parties did not achieve an overall majority. But that has not resulted in consensus, neither did the general election which wiped out all other Northern Irish parties apart from the DUP and Sinn Féin in the House of Commons. The deadlines for agreement have been missed and extended for almost nine months. It was hoped that over the summer the parties could draw closer together, but there has been little sign of that; meanwhile, a febrile argument over the status of the Irish language and an Irish language bill has fuelled division. Added to this a distrust of the British Government from the nationalist side, particularly after the DUP’s deal with the Conservatives, which has created an additional argument over having an ‘independent’ mediator to help the Northern Irish parties negotiate.
So what next? And what does that mean for the rest of the UK?
The Northern Irish Budget is meant to be agreed in October and unless agreement is reached by then it seems infeasible that the current stalemate can continue. James Brokenshire, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, has two options: suspend devolution, or call another election, marking the third time people in Northern Ireland will have gone to the polls this year.
If there’s an election, what will change? Not a great deal to be honest. The DUP’s tactic to tell any wavering unionists “vote for us, or Sinn Féin will get in” is working and they have no reason to change it (yet – but that’s another blog). Similarly, Sinn Féin’s stranglehold on nationalist politics continues, particularly as they borrow liberal clothing from the SDLP to attract those voters. Furthermore, a lot of middle-ground, liberal voters have pronounced a plague on both their houses and won’t vote in any case.
Under the Northern Ireland Act, after any Assembly election the parties have two weeks to negotiate to form an Executive. After that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has the power to call (yet) another election, or – you guessed it – to suspend devolution. So even if there is an election, Northern Ireland may end up back in the same position. The last time the Assembly was suspended – for five years – it took the seemingly damascene conversion of the late Ian Paisley to bring the Assembly and the devolved institutions back to life.
Brokenshire has already started to make noises that at least some form of suspension is being planned. Speaking to business leaders in Belfast last week, he said that “if things don’t change we are on a glide path to greater UK Government intervention.” However, he has made clear that this is not the preferred position of either the UK or Irish Governments.
The Northern Irish civil service may also be sensing the way the wind is blowing. Also last week, the Department for Education published a report on LGBT teenagers’ experience of life at school, which found that two-thirds of LGBT young people in Northern Ireland do not feel welcomed or valued at school. This report was delivered to them in April 2016, but never published. Commenting on the delay, the Department said, “as the research was commissioned by a minister it was the department’s original view that the publication of the research should be cleared by a minister. In light of the increasing volume of enquiries about the review we have decided that the research should now be published” – the Minister at the time they received the report was from the DUP; make of that what you will.
The form suspension will have to take is also noteworthy. Since the St Andrew’s Agreement, the UK can only suspend devolution through an Act of Parliament. Which creates its own problems, with the Conservative’s position only guaranteed by the DUP’s involvement.
The sense at the moment is that we will not see full direct rule – i.e, UK Ministers appointed to cover Northern Irish portfolios. Instead it will be a combination of big ticket items, such as the Budget, being passed by Parliament while the civil service delivers the day-to-day running of government.
There are two big issues to consider here. One is Brexit – the Irish border is a crucial issue for the EU in the negotiations and the impact on Northern Ireland of Brexit will be huge. Without the devolved institutions, how can the voice of Northern Irish people – who voted remain – be included in the discourse effectively?
The other is the position of the DUP. As the ‘junior partner’ in the deal with the Conservatives, they already hold a significant amount of sway – see their decision to side with Labour on the Opposition Day debates last week, which caused significant embarrassment for the Government. If devolution were suspended, they would have extraordinary power to control the Northern Irish budget and any number of important bills. And what about decisions the civil service makes?
The impasse over same-sex marriage – blocked regularly by the DUP in the Assembly – has become totemic, both for them, but also a potent symbol for the stagnation of political discourse in Northern Ireland. This, and their other very socially conservative views, have also gripped the imagination of the wider the UK public after they came to prominence in the post-election deal with the Conservatives. What if, for example, the Northern Irish civil service tried to introduce measures to legalise same-sex marriage, bringing Northern Ireland in line with the rest of UK and Ireland and also in line with the polled views of at least 60% of people in the province – but something the DUP vehemently opposes? If the Assembly were up and running at the moment, it would probably get through now that the DUP have fallen below the magic number of 30 MLAs to block it using a petition of concern. If the civil service tried to introduce it, could the DUP tell the UK Government to stop it, or the ‘confidence and supply’ deal is off? This is a pertinent example. When devolution was last suspended, Peter Hain, who was Northern Irish Secretary at the time, forced through civil partnerships and the sexual orientation regulations against the DUP’s strong objections – they ended up protesting outside Belfast city hall as a lesbian couple became the first civil partners in the UK.
And that’s before we even get into the difficult issue of the Treasury’s insistence that the £1 billion promised for Northern Ireland under the DUP’s deal with the Conservatives can only go to a functioning devolved administration, which is starting to cause friction between the Conservatives and the DUP. One of their MPs, Sammy Wilson, broke ranks last week to say that the deal is off unless the money is forthcoming.
In other words, without devolved institutions, things could get very messy, very quickly.
The parties have a little under a month to come to some sort of agreement and then the ball will be back in Brokenshire’s court. How he, and the Conservatives, address the future of devolution and the Assembly could have far-reaching implications both Northern Ireland and for the rest of the UK.