Northern Irish politics is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Its hard to work out on a good day never mind in the mouth of an election. Just before we head to the polling stations like everyone else in the UK tomorrow, we’ve taken some time to break it all down.
At-A-Glance
- One of the most unpredictable elections in recent times.
- As many as six seats could change hands.
- First July election since 1945.
- First Westminster election with Stormont up and running since 2015.
2019 RESULTS
In the 2019 General Election, four seats changed hands. Back in 2001, seven seats changed party hands; in 2010, just two.
The DUP lost two seats but remained the largest party with 8 MPs elected to Westminster. Sinn Féin stayed on 7 seats, despite losing Foyle (to the SDLP) and winning Belfast North (from the DUP). Both largest parties lost vote share between 2017 and 2019.
The SDLP won Belfast South (from the DUP) and Foyle, returning to the House of Commons benches after an absence of 2 years. Alliance won the North Down seat vacated by independent Sylvia Hermon. Overall, their vote share more than doubled, and was at a higher level than the SDLP.
Five new MPs headed over to London: Colum Eastwood (SDLP), Stephen Farry (Alliance), John Finucane (Sinn Féin), Claire Hanna (SDLP) and Carla Lockhart (DUP, taking over from Jim Shannon). Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley kept the West Tyrone seat she won in the 2018 by-election following Barry McElduff’s resignation.
BOUNDARY REVIEW
Before the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, constituencies ranged from just shy of 65,000 (East Antrim) to 83,000 (Upper Bann). The adjustments, transferring wards and sometimes parts of wards in and out of neighbouring constituencies, has narrowed the gap between the smallest (Foyle, just shy of 70,000) and the largest (Upper Bann, now with just under 77,000).
The results of the boundary review won’t have a major effect on the 2024 General Election. However, the parties will be examining the results and tally information captured during the verification stage of the count to see how it affects their chances at picking up fourth or fifth seats in the next Assembly poll.
COMMENTARY
Until the 4 July poll, there will be no proper evidence of how voters will really behave. Opinion polls trying to tease out their potential behaviour beforehand may in turn sway their actions on the day of the election. Voters can also use pollsters to send a message to the parties they normally support by suggesting bold action, but are less adventurous in the polling station. Until the real poll, all other information, campaigning, rumours and speculation becomes part of a giant feedback loop.
Four ‘known unknowns’ make many of the seats hard to call.
- Turnout for the DUP - if some voters unhappy with the DUP strategy around the NI Protocol stay at home and abstain from the election rather than vote for another party, this will benefit the UUP’s Robin Swann (South Antrim), as well as Alliance’s Stephen Farry (North Down) and Sorcha Eastwood (Lagan Valley).
- Will Sinn Féin voters turn out and vote for other parties in the four constituencies in which there is no Sinn Féin candidate, or will they stay at home?
- The level of tactical voting will decide many seats - Northern Ireland voters are quite savvy, they know that plumping their support for a candidate likely to finish in third place or below will not affect the overall result. Many will want to record their support for their favourite party or candidate. But how many will see their constituency as a two-horse race and vote for the perceived top two candidates? The level of support for the TUV and ‘underdog’ UUP candidates like Tim Collins and Robbie Butler could be crucial in South Antrim, North Down and Lagan Valley.
- Have Alliance peaked? Or will their support increase again? The Alliance surge was obvious at the 2019 General Election. Their vote share more than doubled in 12 constituencies. Opinion polling does not suggest significant further growth. But in the privacy of the polling station, voters may surprise those making predictions!
The only party not to lose a deposit in the 2019 General Election was the DUP. In fact, looking back as far as 1997, the DUP has always retained its deposit in every Westminster election/by-election. Historically, they’ve been most vulnerable in Belfast West and South Down … ones to watch in 2024.
136 candidates are contesting Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. Just under a third of candidates (33.1%) are women: a record number at a General Election, marginally ahead of the 2017 field (33.0%). All but one Independent candidate is male. The parties fielding the greatest proportion of men are unionist: TUV 12/14, UUP 14/17, DUP 13/16. Three parties have more women standing than men: Aontú 6/10, Conservative 3/5, Green Party 6/11.
Narrowing down to look at incumbents, the lowest number of incumbents (14) are seeking re-election of any General Election in the last two decades. In all but one recent election, three or more incumbents have lost their seats on election night.
Fermanagh & South Tyrone is often the most marginal constituency, a battle between leading nationalist and unionist candidates. The SDLP are defending the two largest majorities from the last election: Foyle and Belfast South. As recently as 2017, Foyle was the most marginal seat for Sinn Féin (Elisha McCallion won by 169 votes). Within nationalism, South Down is the most marginal seat. South Antrim is the most marginal constituency within unionism, and is also the constituency that has changed party most often (5 out of 7 elections) since 2000. Belfast East and North Down are the most marginal constituencies between unionism and Alliance.
The DUP have returned the largest number of MPs to Westminster since 2005, when they took over the lead from the UUP. While Sinn Féin won’t expect to gain any seats at this election, the party’s strategy of not running candidates in four ‘progressive’ races is seen as an attempt to boost the chances of the DUP losing two (or more) seats and make Sinn Féin by default the largest party at Westminster.
Looking at votes rather than seats, the DUP vote share would have to significantly dip for Sinn Féin to score the largest number of votes in this election and be able to claim to have become the largest party at Assembly, local government and now Westminster levels. Sinn Féin didn’t stand in Belfast East, Belfast South and North Down in 2019. So their withdrawal from Lagan Valley in 2024 only knocks around a thousand votes off their potential tally and won’t harm their Northern Ireland-wide share.
Election turnout varies greatly across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. In 2019, the competitive Fermanagh & South Tyrone saw a turnout of 70.13% of eligible voters, while Strangford had the lowest (56.28%). Since 1997, no constituency’s turnout has dipped below 50% at a General Election (though East Antrim came close in 2010 with a turnout of 50.89%). Overall, turnout marked an improvement in the last two Westminster elections. Will that pattern continue this year? By-election turnouts are traditionally lower, with Belfast West sliding down to 37.46% in 2011 and South Antrim only managing 43.02% in 2000.
POLLS
The latest polling conducted by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph highlights the fine margins in this election. In 2001, we had one of the highest rates of seat change, with 7 seats moving between parties. The campaign in 2024 is heading the same way.
There are contests which are incredibly finely balanced. This election will likely depend on who gets their voters out. Northern Ireland last had a July contest in 1945. The impact of postal votes and those away on holiday who do not bother to vote will be something to watch.
Opinion polling indicates the DUP trending downwards; Sinn Féin and Alliance holding their own; with the SDLP and UUP trending up. The impact of the TUV in this race is hard to properly evaluate. If they register 5%+ of the vote in places like South Antrim and East Belfast, they will be a problem for the DUP. Less than that will be a sign of good health for the DUP.
HOW LONG TO SIT UP?
In 2019 and 2017, North Down was the first seat declared in the election count. Both times the declaration came after 01:00. Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has no exit poll to project seats when polls close at 10 o’clock. In 2019, a majority of the seats were declared by 04:00. The last seat declared in 2019 and 2017 was Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which came in at 07:00 and 04:09 respectively.
Either way, it will be the early morning hours before you start seeing results from Northern Ireland’s three count centres, particularly for those constituencies whose ballot boxes have the furthest to travel to reach the Craigavon and Magherafelt count centres.