The resignation of a Cabinet Minister, a fast-moving sex scandal and a ‘dodgy dossier’ listing bad behaviour has dominated Westminster this week. But it’s not been the only problem for the government. There’s also the small matter of increasing turmoil in the government’s finances.
Attendees at MHP’s Budget Briefing on November 22 will have more opportunity to go through the detail, but this week saw two instances in which unplanned amendments were made to the Government’s finances. Firstly the Government postponed a tax cut in Class 2 NICs for at least a year, saving hundreds of millions for the Chancellor’s war chest in the process.
Secondly, in response to an earlier court ruling overturning the Government position on PIPs, this week saw DWP announce new rules increasing payments for approximately 10,000 people by 2023.
And finally the first increase in interest rates since 2007 took place, adding increasing uncertainty as to the likely impact of Brexit negotiations on top of recent currency fluctuations.
The Government also decided to offer no defence to the Opposition Motion calling for the ‘secret’ Government European Impact Assessments to be properly available for public view. And data from the Nursing and Midwifery Council revealed that their members are voting with their feet and deserting the NHS in response to Brexit uncertainty.
Meanwhile, one story highlighted one of the most significant narratives behind the vote for Brexit as it was revealed that the Home Office seem to have lost track of approximately 56,000 foreign national offenders and people illegally resident in the UK.
On a normal week, these incidents could each be significant stories.
But the main event of the week was undoubtedly the revelation of the ‘Pestminster’ scandal. Not for the first time Ruth Davidson got it right: “There has been this sense that people can use positions of power to demand things from others and that has got to stop.” And the challenge for Theresa May to be equally clear in her response poses real questions for her Leadership. She needs to show she “gets it” and demonstrate the emotional intelligence that some argued she lacked in the immediate aftermath of her dealing of Grenfell disaster. It has already cost the political career of Michael Fallon, a key ally in Cabinet and the future of her Deputy, Damian Green, hangs in the balance.
The resignation of Michael Fallon as Secretary of State for Defence proves the seriousness of the issue. That the ‘Minister for the Today Programme’ – more commonly deployed to defend colleagues against accusations of one form or another – has had no defence or defender, means that the chances of wider malaise is likely. The ‘House of Cards’ circumstances of the promotion of his successor have not entirely helped with a sense of grip at the heart of Government.
The challenge for May is she can’t afford to get rid of offenders because she doesn’t have a working majority. But she equally knows she can’t set the bar too low. Whether they broke the ministerial code or not is not the issue for the public. It is whether they broke a moral code. My own Party faced similar concerns years ago. The consequences were long lasting and the impression lives long in the public memory. Failure to address issues at the time speaks to a lack of fairness in the common perception which outlasts even the promptest introduction of rigorous systems, protocols and training regimes.
A meeting with fellow Leaders on new ways of working next week isn’t enough. Parliament needs employer/ee accountability and a centralised HR function. It makes laws on workplace behaviour but isn’t held to the same standards. To achieve this, May will have to take-on many traditionalists in her own Party and across the House. It’s the sort of ‘taking back control’ she never thought she’d have to do. But she will be further undermined in the eyes of the public if she doesn’t display she has the power and commitment to get the job done.