No conferring
Scottish conference season is now over, and while much has changed, much stays the same. The SNP would have practically needed Jesus in order to put loaves and fishes before their vast flock in Aberdeen, and Nicola's teflon status remains essentially untouched. A rebellion on fracking - specifically a push for a tougher policy - was narrowly defeated, presumably to the relief of Fergus Ewing. A similar move to strengthen land reform proposals saw the new members take the party with them, though. The leadership still have a relatively free hand in determining what that rethink ends up looking like, so it's too early to tell if that vote was the high water mark of the new membership's influence or a sign of things to come. It won't just be the lairds anxiously awaiting the outcome here.
Labour, as has widely been observed, had a more awkward conference, ending up with perhaps the most contorted position possible on Trident. Their Scottish leader has supported it, but the party voted against it, while the UK party continues to back it, against the wishes of Jeremy Corbyn. This was put to a quick test on Tuesday, and many expected Labour MSPs to split more evenly. In the end only Jackie Baillie, the MSP for Faslane, stuck to her guns (bombs?). Aside from that conference vote, though, Labour's mood seemed a bit more upbeat. They still think they're going to lose in May, but they'll do so with a bit more of a song in their hearts.
The Lib Dems' gathering was mostly notable for a commitment to better gender balance: with all eight MPs being men, and their only female MSP having just been deselected, there could hardly be a more obvious need for it. As for the Greens, they have grown in ways older members could hardly have imagined, from a Dunblane church hall a decade ago to filling the SECC last month. (declaration: I am such an older member). And the Conservatives? Well, their Scottish conference was in February.
Countdown
It won't have escaped any of the parties' strategists and candidates that as of today we are less than six months away from the Holyrood election. Not quite the home straight, but certainly minds are now much more focused. A few sticky bits of legislation have still to be negotiated, though - like the Higher Education Governance Bill, which, amongst other things, removes student-elected rectors from Scotland's older universities, and the afore-mentioned Land Reform Bill. Beyond the Government's plans, independent MSP Jean Urquhart is consulting on a bill to promote the safety of sex workers, which will surely catch the media's eye.
There's a lot of politics to be done, in short, but let's make a rash prediction. The SNP will be within five seats of their 2011 score, Labour will be lucky only to lose half a dozen, the Tories and the Greens will both be up, and the Lib Dems' five will be shaved again.