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With the runners and riders all set, we can now get the office sweepstake underway. No, not the Aintree Grand National – the office sweepstake on which party in Northern Ireland will top the polls when the votes are counted for Westminster on 7/8 May.
We also have a sweep going as to how long Northern Ireland will take to count all the votes, given the delays in declaring last year’s results for the European and local government elections, but this time they promise to be at it all night...
But as to the contest to have the letters M and P after their name, 138 people have set out their stall in our corner of the UK, polished their quips, dabbed vinegar on their door-knocking knuckles and prepared their best smile for the cameras.
Even before the final day for nominations, the unionists were in a nomination confusion issue. South Belfast candidate, Jonathan Bell MLA, who is also a junior minister in the NI Executive, claimed he received inaccurate advice after former Ulster Unionist Party MP, the Rev Martin Smyth, signed his nomination papers and his own party’s candidate, Rodney McCune’s papers as well. Unfortunately for Mr Bell, an individual can only sign one general election candidate’s nomination papers. Mr Smyth said he had been misled by the DUP into signing Mr Bell’s papers and suggested the party withdraw his name.
Much back-peddling ensued from the DUP.
Meanwhile there was a whiff of indignation when it emerged that CISTA – a party backing the legalisation of cannabis – took up the flame of democracy in four constituencies.
The only independent MP in the last Westminster mandate, Lady Sylvia Hermon, faces off against a plethora of candidates in the North Down constituency; ranging from Alex Easton of the DUP, Steven Agnew of the Green Party – both sitting MLAs – through to candidates from UKIP, the anti-Stormont power sharing Traditional Unionist Voice, the NI Conservatives, Sinn Féin, the SDLP and CISTA.
It is good that the General Election means you only tick one box, because if this was a Single Transferable Vote poll, as is the case in the NI Assembly and local government elections, it could take weeks to sort out that lot.
Of course, this election for the House of Commons is all about deals on the unionist side.
The UUP has stepped aside in the key constituency of North Belfast to give the DUP’s Nigel Dodds a fair crack at retaining the seat. He is up against Gerry Kelly MLA (Sinn Féin), Alban Maginness MLA (SDLP), as well as Alliance Party and Worker’s Party candidates, plus an independent candidate. This is, however, effectively a two horse race between the DUP and Sinn Féin with Paddy Power offering odds of 7/1 and 3/1 respectively.
In return, the DUP is stepping aside in the tough seats of Newry and Armagh (Paddy Power odds UUP 16/1, 1/16 for SF, 6/1 SDLP, Alliance 66/1) where Sinn Féin’s candidate Mick Brady MLA is the clear favourite, and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (Paddy Power odds UUP 7/4, SF 2/5, SDLP 40/1, Alliance 66/1).
But, in the eyes of the media the biggest deal was seen to be the UUP’s withdrawal from East Belfast; creating what is effectively a straight fight between the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long and the DUP’s Gavin Robinson. Paddy Power odds favour the DUP (1/5) over Alliance (5/2).
With the TUV and UKIP also withdrawing their East Belfast candidates, a DUP victory here may seem a foregone conclusion. But all is not straightforward in this contest, which last time out saw Ms Long snatch the seat from the seemingly unassailable DUP leader and First Minister, Peter Robinson MLA.
The prospect of tactical voting has not yet been counted upon either: will Green Party voters in East Belfast turn from their own candidate Ross Brown to keep Ms Long as an MP; and will the same thought be in the minds of SDLP and Sinn Féin voters.
Equally, while so many characterise East Belfast as a working class seat, will the affluent wards cast pro-union votes towards the NI Conservatives candidate Neil Wilson (Paddy Power currently puts him in third position on the starting grid with odds of 50/1).
Given the odds are seemingly stacked against the UUP in Newry and Armagh, and Fermanagh and South Tyrone, and the DUP are the favourites to win in North Belfast and East Belfast, it does beg the question – what on earth do the Ulster Unionists hope to get out of their so called ‘unionist unity’ deal with the DUP?
You could say that our office sweepstake just got interesting!