Prior to his election as leader of the UK Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn had never met Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones. Yet the Corbyn revolution will certainly have an impact on the future of Labour in Wales.
When Rhodri Morgan referenced the “clear red water” between Welsh Labour and their Westminster colleagues it was to mark out a difference between a reform-minded Tony Blair led Labour Party at Westminster and a Welsh Government which often sought to seek to insulate the nation from such changes.
Corbyn has referenced his admiration for the approach taken by Labour in Wales and there is common ground on policy such as blocking private involvement in the NHS and opposing academy or free schools. However, the First Minister has been cautious in his approach to the new leader at Westminster. This is with good reason, the General Election was a bruising affair for Labour in Wales with the Conservatives gaining Vale of Clwyd and Gower. The Tories now hold the Parliamentary seat in four constituencies where Labour hold the Assembly seat and these are set to be the big battlegrounds next May. It is difficult to see which of the 27 people who made up the Conservative majority in Gower will be swayed back to Labour by the emergence of Corbynism. Furthermore, long-held Labour seats with relatively small majorities such as Wrexham could become realistic Conservative targets.
Nonetheless, there are reasons for Labour to hope that their new leader may be a boost in Wales. The growth in the Labour movement during their leadership election campaign suggests that there may well be more “troops on the ground” (a phrase Mr Corbyn would probably disapprove of) and some of those councillors who are upset with the Welsh Government’s proposed local government re-organisation may have found a new impetus to knock on doors for their party.
In a similar vein to the SNP, Plaid Cymru released a statement which congratulated Corbyn and sought to draw parallels between their policy positions while also trying to attack the Labour Party. Both nationalist parties may have been too hasty to seek to associate themselves with a Corbyn-brand of politics, time will tell, but inadvertently Plaid Cymru has highlighted that the rise of the hard left in Labour has eroded one of the key planks to their unique selling point. Under Leanne Wood, Plaid has actively sought to outflank Labour on the left, which now requires a considerably bigger swerve than has been the case in recent years. After a low-key General Election Plaid need to show forward momentum in May. With, Llanelli MP, Nia Griffith becoming Shadow Welsh Secretary under Corbyn, Plaid are already seeing the impact of Labour’s leftward shift in one of their target seats.
In the Labour strongholds of the South Wales Valleys there is little for the party to worry about, but UKIP have started to eat away at a few majorities and there will be hope among Labour activists that a more old-school Labour Leader can stem that tide. They may be over-optimistic as Corbyn’s intellectual leftism is someway removed from the day to day experience of many. UKIP will remain an irritant rather than a threat to the dominant party in the Valleys, but they are unlikely to be too concerned by UK Labour’s new direction.
For the Lib Dems to return more than one AM after May will be deemed a decent result. If Plaid has lost a USP, maybe Corbyn’s victory allows space for the Lib Dems to establish a new distinctive position in the political centre ground. This was what they tried and failed to do in the General Election, but times have changed dramatically since then and the Labour shift allows a little light at the end of a long tunnel for the Welsh Lib Dems.
The votes in Wales, Scotland, London and for Police Commissioners next year really matter. With his compliments of Welsh Labour and his promise to make monthly campaign trips to Wales it appears that Jeremy Corbyn wishes to bridge the clear red water, the risk is that he muddies it instead.