Meeting Report: Interel Brexit Breakfast with Sir Stephen Wall

Sir Stephen Wall, former Permanent Representative to the European Union for the United Kingdom, yesterday addressed an Interel Brexit Breakfast giving his latest insight into Britain’s negotiation process with the European Union, following the EU Referendum vote in June. With the dust starting to settle on what Brexit is going to look like, these were the ten key points Sir Stephen highlighted:

1. Following the High Court Ruling last week, it is evident that Parliament could have a large role to play in scrutinising Britain’s withdrawal process. The Government will be eager to find a consensus on the deal that is agreed before Article 50 is triggered. Therefore, it is crucial for business to engage with all the relevant Parliamentarians and submit their written cases, so that their interests can be represented and considered during a vote in Parliament, and potentially then the negotiation process with the EU.

2. The Government will want to conclude negotiations swiftly and within the two-year timeframe following the triggering Article 50 to avoid giving concessions to European Member States to extend the negotiation process. Whilst the Government remains on course to meet its March 2017 deadline for triggering Article 50, this could be extended, with the EU not having any influence over when the UK invokes Article 50.

3. Whilst the Government will aim to conclude negotiations within the two-year period, a transition period following these two years remains a realistic proposition. With elections in France and Germany next year, the first months of negotiations could present themselves as a phoney war, where key issues are not necessarily addressed in depth, with potential new administrations being formed.

4. The negotiation process is undoubtedly going to strain the resources of a Civil Service that has very limited working experience of Trade Agreements. Some British members of the EU Commission will of course be able to help with this, whilst recalling key figures such as the Ambassador to Brazil, Alex Ellis, to provide their expert knowledge of the EU may provide further support one of the government’s biggest obstacles.

5. Theresa May has remained firmly committed to “carrying out the will of the British people”. If she makes any compromises on sovereignty and immigration she will risk a giant backlash from those who voted to leave solely on these issues, thus making a “Norway Style” agreement with access to the single market and judicial rule from the EFTA court, highly unlikely in the current climate.

6. Keeping the Conservative Party united is an underlying factor for Theresa May. Despite being related to different issues, the resignations of Zac Goldsmith and Stephen Phillips prove the fragility of Theresa May’s majority. Striking a balance between her own party’s wishes and the electorate will be a priority, especially with rumours of a General Election growing.

7. A General Election in 2017 has been touted, and based on current polling, a General Election would be likely to produce a large Conservative Majority. With such a large majority, it is likely there will be less compromise between the Conservatives and other parties on Britain’s demands from the negotiation process, due to the ease she will have at passing any legislation related to Brexit.

8. To follow on from this however, if a General Election does not happen it could enhance the possibility of a more inclusive agreement with the European Union further down the line of the negotiation process. Tony Blair has floated the idea of the British people changing their minds warming to a similar deal that the UK already has with the EU. Whilst this does not mean they will hamper Brexit, the electorate may be more receptive to making larger compromises for a better deal, for example freedom of movement in exchange for Single-Market access.

9. The UK has more at stake in their negotiations due to the existing trade deficit with the EU. Any workable agreement between the UK and the EU will heavily rely on what compromise is decided as necessary for protecting business and interests within the EU. The Government will need to draw up a list of priorities and “red lines” for their negotiation process with the EU if they are to succeed at securing the best deal for the United Kingdom. One possible solution may be a sector by sector deal to protect key areas such as finance, this will however need a coherent strategy amongst sectors, something that is currently lacking.

10. The whole notion of “Brexit means Brexit”, and other phrases that have been coined in the process are meaningless. The only “soft Brexit” is no Brexit, and whilst it is still within the realms of possibility that a deal will be made between the UK and the EU, there will undoubtedly be years of uncertainty ahead.