After a fortnight of frenzied policy announcements the Conservative Party has released its manifesto for the General Election. With the polls so wide in Labour’s favour the chances of this manifesto being implemented are infinitesimal.
It’s been clear over the past two weeks that the threat of Reform UK eating into the 2019 Conservative vote is playing heavily on the minds of Tory strategists. This has resulted in a slew of announcements designed to appeal to older people and squeeze the Reform vote.
The manifesto adds to this with a broader appeal to the nation. It is surely too late to shift the dial but there is some policy meat in this pitch to the electorate. The following summary gives a sense of what the Prime Minister would like to do if he were given the honour of another term and what the Conservative Party thinks still needs doing after fourteen years in government.
Economy
1. Cutting another 2p off National Insurance
2. Abolishing the main rate of National Insurance by the end of the Parliament for the self- employed
3. Not raising the rate of income tax or VAT
4. Creating more Freeports and Business Rates Retention zones
5. Extending the UK Shared Prosperity Fund for 3 years
6. Introducing the Triple Lock Plus for pensioners
The economy is usually a strength for the Conservative Party but recent opinion polling has shown that Labour and Keir Starmer are now more trusted to steward the economy than Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party. Sunak’s main claim on the economy in recent weeks is that we have ‘turned a corner’.
It’s true that inflation is down and cuts have been delivered to National Insurance. Following two quarters of negative economic growth in 2023 the economy is now growing and wages are going up. But with no sign of interest rates coming down before August or September it is unlikely that many voters will be feeling the benefits of economic growth yet.
he two previous reductions in National Insurance have done nothing to boost the Tory vote share in the opinion polls and it is hard to see how a pledge to reduce it further will make any difference.
Housing and Planning
1. Unblocking 100,000 new homes
2. Introducing a Help to Buy scheme for first-time buyers
3. Abolishing stamp duty for homes up to £425,000 for first-time buyers
4. Abolishing EU nutrient neutrality rules
5. Renewing the Affordable Homes Programme
6. Requiring councils to set aside land for local builders and lifting section 106 burdens on smaller sites
7. Raising density levels in inner London to those in European cities
8. Passing a Renters Reform Bill and completing the process of leasehold reform
9. Ending rough sleeping
10. Unlocking new urban regeneration schemes
As with most pledges from a government that has been in power for fourteen years, commitments to resolve a housing crisis that has grown and grown over the same period will be treated with scepticism.
These are a list of sensible proposals but none on their own, nor all taken together will shift the dial and deliver the 300,000 new homes that the Conservative Party is still committed to but failed to achieve in any of the last fourteen years.
Throughout the 2024 Election period, Cratus Group will provide the latest insights and intelligence from the political front line. If you have any questions about what this means for you, please contact dhumphreys@cratus.co.uk for more information.