Although the next round of Brexit negotiations has been pushed back, the complexity of the process was underlined this week with the UK and the EU looking each as polarised as ever.
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Angela Merkel is said to have received an offer of €20 billion from the UK government as a proposed settlement bill that would cover a transition period of two years. The sum, which according to the EU should amount to at least €50 billion, is seen as a tool to ease the Brexit negotiation deadlock, as well as a compromise with hard Brexiteer Boris Johnson.
In fact, the news was a welcome sign of strength and stability from a government which looked increasingly divided earlier this week, with public spats among senior politicians and with high ranking civil servants. Johnson’s article last Sunday outlining his vision of Brexit led to fuming words from, amongst others, former Tory Chancellor Kenneth Clarke accusing the foreign secretary of exploiting May’s weakened position after the general election.
EU leaders will be eager to see whether the division really has been dealt with when the PM delivers her speech in Florence today outlining her policies on Brexit – although some have hinted at May’s political weakness preventing her from following through with any promises she makes. Nonetheless, one topic that may be addressed is that of the Irish border. Guy Verhofstadt spoke on Wednesday of giving Northern Ireland a special status, therefore preventing a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK. He also restated his proposal of allowing Northern Ireland to elect Irish Republic MEPs.
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Hungary accepted the ECJ’s ruling on the Commission’s plan to allocate refugees amongst all Member States but it also drew attention to the “temporary nature of the decision”. Victor Orbán stated that Hungary, as a member of the EU, would indeed respect the bloc’s laws but that the refugee relocation system was proposed as an emergency measure and that the Commission should not go against the will of the Council.
This comes a week after Jean-Claude Juncker’s plan to merge both leading EU presidents into one position, giving it clearer leadership according to him. In fact, Lib Dems’ leader Vince Cable slaughtered Juncker on Tuesday for his views, stating that he is only fuelling Brexiteers’ hate of a federal EU.
Furthermore, Sunday’s election of Germany’s Bundestag may see a weakening of Angela Merkel. Although a predicted Liberals comeback could enable her Christian Democrats – still well ahead in the polls – to stay in power through a coalition, they will not be looking to roll over as easily as in 2009. However, pollsters are having trouble predicting the far-right party’s chances. The wave of populism that has swept through European elections may not yet be over. Indeed, Bulgaria’s ultra-nationalistic government will take over the rotating presidency of the Council in January next year.