With an avalanche of headlines on the way this week about the local and European election results, and what they mean for the state of the parties, this briefing seeks to cut through the speculation and highlight the key developments to watch out for.
The polls have offered wildly differing assessments of the situation and the strength of UKIP support. The polls are, however, consistent in pointing to a very difficult election night for Nick Clegg, with them being in real danger of slipping behind the Greens for fifth place.
Will UKIP cause an earthquake or a tremor? What will this mean for the Conservatives in 2015?
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UKIP are threatening to cause a “political earthquake” at the European and local Elections this week. For well over a year now the polls have been suggesting that UKIP are on course to either win or come a very close second in the European elections, as well as making sizeable gains at a local level. The ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory, and is further evidence of the fracturing of the two-party system.
The 2009 European elections reminded us that often these low turnout elections provide little indication of what will happen at the General Election. In 2009 UKIP came second with 16.6 per cent of the vote, but only managed 3 per cent of the popular vote in 2010. Of course much has changed since, not least the media’s insatiable appetite for all things UKIP, but the lesson is clear – UKIP should not count on this support to materialise at the General Election, not least as the polls do show a sizeable chunk of the UKIP vote in these elections returning ‘home’ to the main parties for the General Election.
That said, UKIP doesn’t need to poll particularly highly to still have a major impact on next year’s result. The Party is taking votes from both the Tories in the Shires as well as traditional blue-collar voters from Labour, and could well influence the result in a number of marginal seats next year.
If the Conservatives come third in the European elections and lose a number of their councillors, David Cameron is likely to endure a difficult few days and the possibility of renewed criticism from the right. Some will argue that the success of UKIP means that the Party should shift to the right and talk more about subjects like immigration and Europe.
The Prime Minister also has one final Government reshuffle up his sleeve and may well decide to use the period shortly after the election results to refresh his team. A reshuffle could be used as a way of drawing a line under disappointing results as the Prime Minister looks to pull together the team that he hopes will be in government after 2015.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the local results for the Tories in closely contested local authorities such as Trafford, Croydon, Hammersmith and Fulham, and Richmond. The ability to fight off these attacks will demonstrate the relative health of the Tory on-the-ground campaigning operation, and serve as a rehearsal for May 2015.
A crucial moment for Labour…
Labour are still favourites to form a government in 2015, but it is by no means a certainty, and some bookies are now offering the Tories as favourites to win the most votes, if not seats. Thursday will be the first real test of the messages and strategy that Labour has set out, as well as a personal test of Ed Miliband’s leadership, particularly after recent polls suggested a significant narrowing, or even total disappearance, of his Party’s lead.
Never before has an Opposition party failed to win a European election and go on to form a Government the following year. If Labour don’t top both the European and Local elections this week, some within the party will start to question whether they can in fact win in 2015. If they come third in the European elections behind the Tories and UKIP, it will be a major setback for Miliband.
Questions have already been raised from within the Party about Labour’s strategy ahead of these elections. It has been suggested that they should have focussed more of their attacks on the Party that is polling 29 per cent (UKIP) in the latest opinion polls instead of one that is trailing on 9 per cent (Lib Dems).
There is in fact a clear motive for adopting a strategy of not attacking UKIP too ferociously. If UKIP maintain their momentum through to the 2015 General Election, largely at the expense of Conservative voters, this would have tangible benefits for Labour’s chances of forming a majority, or even being the largest party. To that effect, the message from on-high has generally been to avoid direct attacks on UKIP. Added to this, Labour strategists regard 2010 Lib Dem voters as the crucial addition to Labour’s vote in order to get across the line in 2015. Historically, the number of Tory-Labour switchers is very low for this stage in a Parliament (the latest YouGov poll puts the figure as low as 4 per cent). As such, a major plank of Labour’s general election strategy involves 2010 Lib Dem voters not returning to their former party.
But will this approach continue if UKIP beat Labour at the European elections? Party strategists will have to wake up to the fact that they too are vulnerable to the rise of UKIP.
What is clear is that these elections will be a serious test for Miliband, and depending on the result, could have a real impact on how Labour approach the General Election in terms of messaging and of course, crucially, morale within the Party.
…An existential one for the Lib Dems?
The situation is critical for the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg’s “party of in” faces the prospect of being the party of out if they lose all of their 12 MEPs on Thursday. The local elections could be just as troubling. Some commentators have predicted that they could lose 340 of their 732 council seats, and with them control of several of the eight councils they control being contested. Insiders believe that this figure is a high, but if they do lose hundreds of council seats, this will have a direct impact on their local activist strength on the ground, with many losing councillors possibly deciding to hang up their activist boots.
What would such a disastrous set of results mean for the Party and their chances of forming another coalition? A party that spent decades piling up strong performances in mid-term elections is facing an electoral drubbing this week. Momentum is everything in politics, and the fate of the Lib Dems seems to be heading in only one direction. Whatever has been said about the Liberal Democrats, it would be inadvisable to write them off by underestimating their on-the-ground campaigning strength, on which they can usually rely to hold on to key seats when it matters, such as Eastleigh in the 2013 by-election. They will remain a presence in the House of Commons after the General Election, and may well still be able to hold the balance of power should the Tories or Labour fail to reach a majority.
One thing we can be sure of is that Thursday’s results, while less predictable than comparable elections due to the emergence of UKIP as a significant national force, will play a key role in setting the political weather for the coming months. They’ll help frame the context and determine the morale of the parties as they head into the final 11 months of campaigning.
This article was first published on the Fishburn blog.