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As we rumble on into election season 2016, opinion pollsters are sharpening their pencils once again.
This year however, is different. In 2015 the industry was rocked after most failed to predict the result of the General Election. This was just after the Scottish Referendum, which polling also suggested would be much narrower than the result actually was. The problem, the industry concluded, was unrepresentative samples.
As we look forward towards the EU referendum, pollsters will be determined to get it right, but there is a growing row in the industry about whether or not it’s already showing signs of going horribly wrong.
It stems from a historic schism in the industry – some see the future of polling as being done online, while others favour a traditional telephone-based method.
In the EU referendum, telephone polls are clear: the Remain campaign is ahead, and by some way – 10-20 points in fact. Online polls however point to a much closer contest with a difference of just a few points, sometimes favouring Leave, sometimes Remain.
The polling itself has also varied wildly, with the same opinion pollster conducting the same poll one month apart and getting a 10 point difference.
In February, two polls were conducted almost simultaneously, but yielded wildly different results. An online poll by YouGov (conducted 21-23 Feb) gave the Leave campaign a one-point lead, yet a ComRes telephone poll (19-22 Feb) gave a 12-point lead to Remain.
While in an ideal world the diversity in polling would balance out and result in moderate and objective reporting, the reality can be quite different. The campaigns, pushing their respective agendas, and the media, which often has an editorial line, point only to the polls that prove them right, rather than giving them any balance. Not only this, but they can sometimes selectively pick the parts of the polling which suits them too.
So to get to the bottom of this, Populus recently conducted an experiment. They did two polls regarding voting intentions for the EU referendum, one online and one over the phone. The result was fascinating.
The phone test gave Remain an 11 point lead, dropping to 3 points when a ‘don’t know’ option was offered. The online poll gave Leave a 1 point lead, rising to 6 points when ‘don’t know’ option was given. This tells us that method matters a lot.
While others like the Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report will give excellent analysis of why this might be from a polling perspective, the data could suggest that many people who don’t know how to vote, would plump for Remain if forced. Alternatively, something similar to the 2015 General Election’s ‘’Shy Tories’’ phenomenon could be at play, in which people are reluctant to admit they back Brexit to another person over the phone, but are more fearless over the internet.
So, if you want the real inside track on what the result will be on June 24th, don’t just look at the polling statistics of Leave vs Remain, but also look at the turnout. Many people are undecided. In the end, how many of them vote, and who for, looks set to seal the fate of the Referendum.