A string of by-election defeats, a party plagued with scandal, and a poll deficit which only continues to widen: 2023 was already shaping up to be a far from vintage year for Rishi Sunak. Then in October the Conservatives orchestrated a party conference which, at best, failed to move the dial of public opinion in their favour. The general public seemed completely unmoved by their decision to turn up in Manchester, scrap HS2, pledge to put on more buses instead, and hand out copies of Liz Truss’ failed mini-budget.
One by one, the big set-piece fixtures in the calendar before the next election are slipping past Sunak. These are opportunities for him to grasp the narrative, paint himself as a force for change, and bring to a halt what feels like an inevitable slide to a Labour victory. Certain days will be circled in every calendar in CCHQ: occasions to grasp the agenda, opportunities which the Tories cannot afford to waste any more of. They have two such opportunities in November. The first is the State Opening of Parliament on Tuesday, with the King’s Speech.
Sunak hasn't given up yet: all signs indicate he has 12 months until the election, and on Tuesday we will learn how he plans to use that time. In this King’s Speech, and the following Autumn Statement, he needs to make a coherent case, one which draws a dividing line between his party and Labour, which gives a believable impression that progress is being made and that work is underway which he deserves time to finish. A huge amount rides on the speech which King Charles’ Government will provide him to read out to MPs and Lords. As always, the seriousness of the content will be contrasted with the extravagant pomp and ceremony.
Aside from the Monarch, two people have key roles to play. Sarah Clark, who in 2018 became the first female Black Rod in the 650 year history of the role, will have the door to the Commons slammed in her face as a symbol of Parliament’s independence from the monarchy. And Jo Churchill MP, who instead of sitting in the Chamber with her colleagues will spend Tuesday morning in Buckingham Palace. It is traditional for one MP to be “held hostage" in the Palace while the King is in Parliament, to ensure he is returned safely.
Given just how pivotal this King’s Speech is for the PM, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that so far, the policy platform feels a little thin. There doesn't seem to be any particular headline-grabbing Bill, and little by way of narrative tying them together: other than further walking away from the green agenda, with a decelerated transition away from North Sea oil and gas and pro-motorist laws enshrined making it harder for local authorities to introduce 20mph speed limits.
King’s Speeches rarely feature a ‘rabbit from the hat’ in the way budgets often do. Given how much hinges on this one, however, it could be that Number 10 has a surprise in the works. As they will be very aware of, Civil Servants will effectively down tools as the election approaches. Therefore, much of what the Government promises on Tuesday, whatever it is, may be extremely difficult to deliver. They might have seen this as a chance to go big: chances are running out to sell the public some bold dividing lines between themselves and Labour. If the list of Bills the King reads out on Tuesday is as limited as it currently looks like being, then Sunak may look back and rue another chance missed.
The King's Speech 2023: What to Expect
A topic generating noise this week, following the UK’S AI safety summit, is around autonomous vehicles and their place within the Transport Bill. The government is set on introducing self-driving vehicles and vessels on the road by 2025, ushering in a touch of sci-fi to our daily commutes. While the idea of robotic chauffeurs sounds intriguing, it also raises concerns about potential AI-induced road rage.
Those who haven’t followed the saga surrounding HS2 closely may wonder why the Bill to deliver Phase 2B of the project (from Crewe to Manchester), is carried over, whereas the Bill for 2A (from Birmingham to Crewe) might be repealed. Persisting with the Crewe to Manchester Bill would keep alive the option of delivering Northern Powerhouse Rail, which relies heavily on HS2 infrastructure. Completely repealing Phase 2A (between Birmingham and Crewe) would not only complete the scrapping of the northern leg which was announced at Conservative Party Conference, but also have significant consequences for the first phase of the project between London and Birmingham.
The Crime and Justice Bill is another significant move, aiming to keep rapists and serious sexual offenders behind bars for their entire sentences. It's a clear redefinition of justice for heinous crimes, offering a more secure future for victims and society.
Meanwhile, the Energy Infrastructure Bill takes centre stage, with a focus on expanding North Sea oil exploration. This move doesn't quite align with the global shift toward renewable energy sources, reigniting discussions about the environment and climate change.
For Londoners, the Pedicabs (London) Bill could bring some long-awaited changes. Pedicabs, often overlooked in the grand scheme of transportation, are finally getting some much-needed regulation. This bill addresses various aspects, from fares and driver conduct to safety measures, potentially transforming this niche mode of tourist transportation.
Rishi Sunak's "smokefree generation" plan, outlined in the Tobacco Products Bill, proposes to ban tobacco sales to individuals born after 2009. This bold move could significantly alter smoking habits and public health outcomes.
The Leasehold Reform Bill is also on the horizon, aiming to ban leaseholds for new houses, and extend lease extensions to 990 years. These changes could reshape the property market and homeownership.
Bills expected to carry over
Several bills are expected to carry over into the 2023-24 session, including the Economic Activity of Public Bodies (Overseas Matters) Bill, which is due to have its 3rd reading in the commons. This bill makes provision to prevent economic decisions made by public bodies from being influenced by political or moral disapproval of foreign states.
The Renters Reform Bill, currently in committee stage, having completed its 2nd reading, will also continue to progress in the new parliamentary session. This bill will impose regulations on landlords, ensuring that private renters have access to a secure and decent home without eviction on unreasonable grounds.
Bills mentioned in last Queen’s Speech (but not yet introduced)
A Transport Bill was mentioned in the 2022 Queen’s Speech, but then shelved due to a lack of parliamentary time. It was intended to give powers to a new organisation called Great British Railways (GBR), which would be the “single national leader of the railways” and gain contracting powers for passenger services. In addition, a draft Media Bill was published by the government in March 2023, but no final version was introduced. The bill would seek to reform the regulation of public service broadcasting, on-demand programming and the radio, as well as also conferring new powers to OFCOM and the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. We think both bills will make a return this time around.
by Tom Murphy, Senior Account Executive