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Kicking off 2016, the Prime Minister’s New Year message centred on reiterating the government’s one-nation aspirations, once again highlighting that the current Conservative leadership is targeting the centre-ground of British politics. In part it was a message designed to reassure that Cameron’s administration retains a purpose – ‘social renewal’ – and a drive – ‘we are in the middle of one of the great reforming decades in our history’.
The PM’s message reinforced the themes articulated during his conference speech back in October, which saw a return to the ‘modernising’ Cameron of the early days of his leadership. Boosting home ownership; tackling poverty by targeting root causes such as addiction and mental health; and enhancing social mobility through ending discrimination – this is an attempt to demonstrate the government is focused on social reform and not just bringing down the deficit.
While the EU referendum and ongoing ‘difficult’ negotiations with other member states did receive a mention, the PM’s attempt to highlight other elements of his government’s agenda indicates a desire that 2016 doesn’t simply become solely about Brussels. The potential for Europe to cause significant ructions within the party (both within Parliament and among the grassroots) is one of the main risks to the Conservatives in the twelve months ahead (and beyond). Debate and disagreement can be expected, but the Conservative leadership will not want it to dominate. However, in the last few days alone, six Conservative MPs elected in 2015 have come out in favour of leaving, there have been reports of (yet another) Brexit campaign group being established and the grassroots ConservativeHome website has highlighted that two-thirds of its party member readers are ‘set to back Brexit’. Whether the Conservative leadership likes it or not, it’s difficult to see a 2016 that isn’t dominated by the forthcoming EU referendum.
In part a nod to his political outlook and in part a plea for party unity, Jeremy Corbyn focused his New Year’s message on the ‘spirit of community and solidarity’. The Labour leader claimed the government’s climb down on tax credits and on proposed cuts to police services, as well as the scrapping of a planned prison deal with Saudi Arabia, as victories for the Labour Party. With the Parliamentary Labour Party largely opposed to its own leader, Corbyn needs to start 2016 by demonstrating effective opposition and an ability to hold the government to account – before the murmurings from the backbenches rise. Equally, presenting a degree of party unity will be crucial to shoring up his position as leader. In that respect, beginning the year with a reshuffle – a ‘revenge reshuffle’ as portrayed by the media – can certainly be seen as a bold move.