As the dust settles from the result which few anticipated, it is back to business for David Cameron’s majority Conservative government. Unencumbered by coalition partners, the Prime Minister should feel emancipated and able to implement a programme of radical reform, but it’s never that straightforward. He may be shorn of his Liberal Democrat partners, but Mr Cameron now has to manage his ‘coalition’ of Conservative backbench MPs, potentially an even bigger challenge. The next 100 days will be fascinating.
Given the whirlwind of events in the last week and the implications for many of the political parties, the Ketchum team shares some insights and opinions, below, on election night itself and some of the challenges the Conservatives and Labour face in the immediate future.
A Modern Labour Fit to Govern
by Jo-ann Robertson, MD of Corporate and Public Affairs
The Labour Party should not be surprised at the situation it currently finds itself in. When you have a leader that doesn’t connect with people, a strategy that people don’t understand, and policies that appeal to a minority of the electorate, then another term in opposition should have been (and was by many) expected.
But all is not lost. Although the Conservatives won a majority of MPs, they haven’t captured the mood of the country. Therefore, if Labour can do what it should have done five years ago and honestly reflect on what the Party needs to do to reconnect with voters, we could win a majority in 2020.
What will that take?
- A fresh look at the Labour Party’s identity and a reinvention of Labour values for Britain in 2020;
- A fresh leader from the 2010 intake from outside London who has a vision for the Labour Party and the country;
- A manifesto for change that is rooted in equality of opportunity, championing aspiration, and rewarding success.
Labour can win again. But the choices the membership make over the next weeks and months will dictate if the win will be in 2020, 2025, or 2030.
Keep Calm and Carry on
by Rupert Lewis, Practice Director, Public Affairs
This has been the overriding sentiment conveyed by Conservative central command since last Friday.
Media stories in recent days have claimed that the Tories suspected, a full week before the election, that the final polling numbers would work to their benefit and deliver a victory, but nobody seriously took that for granted.
This is always the way with general elections. Prepare for the unexpected and don’t believe the result until the figures are there in black and white. Notoriously, Tony Blair couldn’t believe the exit poll in 1997 which forecasted a massive Labour landslide, preferring to place his confidence in the constituency results as they came through one by one. But once those results become concrete, victory is sweet. For the Conservatives bound by the shackles of coalition over the last five years, it feels like liberation.
Commentators were swift to jump on the fragility of the majority (twelve seats), but to the Conservative parliamentary party and David Cameron won’t care at all. They have been returned to government by themselves, with more seats and a mandate to deliver on their manifesto commitments. This already feels like the high point of the second Cameron administration and it’s only a week old.
But why such a short honeymoon period? Simple, Mr Cameron’s in-tray contains a number of issues so intractable for some members of his party; he’s going to have to discharge superhuman powers just trying to keep his party together over the next few years.
What is startling is that he is the architect of so many of these issues. From delivering an EU referendum, a new British Bill of Rights, devolving increased fiscal powers to Scotland and implementing potentially £12billion in public spending cuts by 2018, Mr. Cameron faces a rocky road ahead.
Moreover, while the Conservatives enjoy hegemony in the House of Commons, we should expect the opposition parties in the Lords (especially the Lib Dems) to be champing at the bit to hold this new executive to account. Hold on, it’s going to be a roller-coaster ride for everyone involved.
An election night to remember
by Victoria Barton, Senior Account Director
A number of friends and family asked me why I bother staying up and watching the election results roll in, noting, “Why waste valuable sleeping hours?” For some elections I think their comments might be justified, but for last week’s general election, they were wrong.
The evening was dramatic from the get go and it was great to be in the heart of Westminster at the Ketchum and Ellwood Atfield Party.
With the prospect of a hung parliament and a plethora of coalition concoctions mooted, the crowd was astonished as Andrew Hawkins, Chief Executive of Pollster ComRes, gave an overview of the exit poll.
As the night wore on and headline seats were declared there were gasps, and at times tears, as significant names from both the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats were unseated. While it was never going to be a comfortable night for the Liberal Democrats, nobody believed veteran MPs like Simon Hughes and Vince Cable (with a combined 52 years in parliament) would lose their seats. The sight of former Business Secretary Vince Cable graciously accepting the result, his eyes welling up with tears, brought most of the room to a standstill.
Those of us who were still awake at 8.30am were witness to 2015’s ultimate ‘Portillo Moment’, the defeat of Ed Balls, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor. A coup long sought after by the Conservatives and missed by 1,101 in 2010.
For me, the biggest takeaway from the night was not the Conservative victory, the scalping of Ed Balls or even UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s failure to win South Thanet, but the loss of some excellent politicians. Regardless of party affiliation, losing good constituency MPs because nationally, their party did not resonate with the electorate is the downside of every election.