Watching the SNP leadership contest is reminiscent of former eastern European dictatorships becoming acquainted with democracy.
A favoured candidate, hustings booked out before they are announced in premises too small for demand, repeat attendees at each hustings, SNP staffers taking holidays to help Hamza Yousaf and others seconded and a pre-determined strategy to attempt to knock Kate Forbes out of the race.
The strategy was clear. As soon as Kate Forbes announced her candidacy, STV was primed to question how her religious beliefs might affect progressive politics. “Surprised” at her answer, some of those who had declared their initial backing for Forbes pulled their support.
Almost enough for her to withdraw from the race, but not quite. Folk with long memories recalled that Hamza, the anointed candidate, had mysteriously missed the final vote on the Civil Marriages Bill in 2014. Further examination revealed that following criticism from his Glasgow Mosque, he had arranged an “urgent meeting” which just happened to coincide with the vote.
The response from Forbes has set the campaign, and maybe the SNP, alight. Her performance at the first televised hustings, to paraphrase Michael Caine, “blew the bloody doors off”. Arguing that the SNP government had to change saying that “More of the same is not a manifesto – it is an acceptance of mediocrity".
Forbes then proceeded to demolish Yousaf, pointing out his consistent failure in every ministerial post that he has held, particularly in his current Health Secretary post. Under his leadership, one in nine Scots are on an NHS waiting lists and his Covid Recovery Plan was criticised by Audit Scotland. In February, they said “But the plan does not contain the detailed actions that would allow progress to be accurately measured. The backlog has continued to increase in the 18 months since the plan was published”.
And Yousef continues to support the Gender Recognition Reform Bill saying that he will challenge Westminster’s use of Section 35 despite a large majority of Scots, and SNP members, being against the Bill and against conflict with Westminster over the issue.
How will this play with SNP members? How much influence does the dying cabal centred on Sturgeon, Swinney and Robertson still have? Are SNP members prepared to accept their government’s ongoing failure to deliver, not just ferries, but also on a range of policies in education and health and social care to say nothing of the Gender Recognition Reform Bill?
Who will win? Difficult to say. Forbes has exhibited a steely determination that contrasts with Yousef’s ongoing attempts to reconcile his words with his actions.
Does it matter who wins? Probably not. The next First Minister will be landed with an in box that would be enough to destroy the most experienced politicians. Before long a final decision will have to be taken on whether to scrap the two ferries, now five years late and £200m plus over budget; whether to continue with the GRR Bill and the Deposit Return Scheme Bill or accept that they are best binned, and whether the coalition with the Greens should continue.
And that is before the before PoliceScotland complete their investigation into the SNP’s missing £600k ring fenced Referendum Campaign Fund. Interesting times ahead!
Quote of the campaign so far. Jim Sillars on Newsnight; “What we should be discussing is economic and social policy, not whether or not she is John Knox’s wee sister”.
by Keith Geddes, Policy Director, Pagoda PR